National League West
The final preview and predictions blog comes in the National League West. The one division in baseball that likely won't be close.
The L.A. Dodgers are loaded and projected to win 38.5 games in Vegas. The next best projection is the Padres at 31.5 so the betting world has the Dodgers running away with this division. And with good reason. The Dodgers don't have a lot of holes.
The best pitchers and guys with the best shot win MVP are on that team outside of guys like Nolan Arenado in Colorado and Ketel Marte in Arizona.
The Dodgers have reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger and now $300 million man Mookie Betts as he and the Dodgers reached a massive 13-year deal to keep the superstar in Southern California for maybe the rest of his career.
Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are both good enough to win the Cy Young, too.
The Diamondbacks added Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte this offseason and they will go nicely with Ketel Marte, who was fantastic last year.
The Padres' young talent is unreal as their minor league system has been one of the best in baseball for awhile. Chris Paddack is a young ace that still needs to prove himself, Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to take a step after a strong rookie year that was limited by design to keep him healthy long term and the addition of Tommy Pham could be huge.
It's hard not to like the Rockies' trio of Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, but the pitching staff is not proven.
The Giants are running aging veterans Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to lead the pitching staff and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria are older veterans who had down years last year but are still the best players on the roster.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Dodgers (38.5)
2. Diamondbacks (30.5)
3. Padres (31.5)
4. Rockies (27.5)
5. Giants (25.5)
Dodgers
This team may win 40 games. I think their floor is about 38 and their ceiling is 45. That's how good the roster is.
Bellinger. Betts. Max Muncy. Justin Turner. Corey Seager. AJ. Pollock. Gavin Lux. That's a loaded lineup. And Buehler and Kershaw are joined by Julio Urias, Ross Stripling and Dustin May in the rotation.
The biggest question mark is not a negative. It's just something I don't know yet. Who is going to start after Buehler and Kershaw? How healthy is Alex Wood? Is Stripling more of a long reliever type and how much are they going to count on young stud May in the rotation?
Best chance at MVP - Bellinger
He was the MVP last year in the NL so it'd be foolish for me to pick anyone else. Betts has a shot after having an OPS of .915 last year and scoring an AL-high 135 runs. He also batted .295. But Bellinger hit .305 with 47 homers, 115 RBIs, 121 runs and 15 steals. His OPS was an incredible 1.035. If he does that again over a 60-game schedule, he'll again get first-place votes for the award.
Best chance at Cy Young - Buehler
Kershaw is aging but was still great last year. His ERA was 3.03 but his FIP showed that he was bit lucky. I haven't used FIP with any of my previews yet but it's a valuable tool to see how good pitchers really were. Buehler's FIP of 3.01 was better than his 3.26 ERA and he struck out 215 in his second full season.
Need a big season from - Urias
This may be a surprise, but I just don't think the lineup with have many issues. The Dodgers need a third starter to be able to push past their wall in the playoffs. If Urias is that guy, it will be massive for them. Urias pitched in 37 games last year but made only eight starts. His ERA was 2.49 though and he had 85 strikeouts. He's got talent and if they move him to a full-time starter he can push this team over the top to a World Series title.
Diamondbacks
Picking the second place team in this division was tough. Outside of the Giants, the other three teams have a lot to like.
I went with the D-Backs. Their trio of Ketel Marte, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar rivals the Rockies threesome but they have better pitching. And I am not sure the Padres are ready to make the jump everyone thinks they'll make.
Ketel Marte was an MVP type player last year. Getting Starling Marte away from a bad Pittsburgh team will help, too. Christian Walker had an .875 OPS as well.
The pitching staff isn't great but I trust guys like Bumgarner, Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray more than I trust the top guys on the other teams.
Best chance at MVP - Ketel Marte
I owned Marte in fantasy leagues last year. A relatively unknown is now closer to a household name for baseball fans. He batted .329 with 32 homers, 92 RBIs, 97 runs and 10 steals. His OPS was .981, which was among the best in baseball.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Gallen
Bumgarner has done it before but he is aging. Gallen only made 15 starts last year but his ERA was 2.81 between Miami and Arizona. He also had 96 strikeouts. I expect him to break out this summer and push the D-backs to the runner-up spot in the division
Need a big season from - Starling Marte
They added Starling Marte for a reason. The dude hit .295 with 23 homers, 85 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 steals and had an OPS of .845. He will most likely bat near the top of the order with Ketel Marte and get on base a lot for guys like Escobar and Walker to bring home.
Padres
I don't know why the Padres are so much more liked with the Vegas projections than the Rockies, but the young talent is there. There are a lot of unknowns heading in the season. If they all hit, then they will probably finish second in the division.
The rotation features 24-year-old Chris Paddack, whose rookie season included an ERA of 3.33 and 153 strikeouts. I think Dinelson Lamet and Joey Lucchessi are capable but they haven't done it on the big stage yet.
Machado was one of the big free agent signings last offseason for San Diego but he hit only .256 and his OPS was .796 last year.
Unleashing Tatis Jr. for the entire 60 games will be fun to watch. And I love the addition of veteran Tommy Pham. Can other veterans like Wil Meyers, Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar do enough to make the Padres a contender?
Best chance at MVP - Tatis Jr.
The Padres shut down Tatis after only 84 games last year. But he hit .317 and had an OPS of .969. He's a guy who can hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases this summer. If he gets close to last year, he has the name recognition to be in the mix for MVP.
Best shot at Cy Young - Paddack
Paddack won't win the Cy Young but he gives the Padres their best shot. He was 9-7 last year and his ERA was good enough to make the cut. He'll start the season as the No. 1 starter and that also helps.
Need a big season from - Machado
Maybe what we saw last year from Machado is his new normal. I didn't think he was worth the money the Padres gave him last offseason. He can prove me wrong by improving on last season. The Padres definitely need him to rebound.
Rockies
Arenado, Story and Blackmon were all had OPS seasons of better than .900, but who else is there. I like Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson's versatility, but the pitching staff just wasn't that great last year.
I know playing inside Coors has a lot to do with that. But German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray will have to be better if Colorado wants to finish above their 28-win Vegas projection.
Best chance at MVP - Arenado
Arenado continues to be one of the best players in baseball. His OPS last year was .962 and he hit 41 homers with 118 RBIs, 102 runs and a .315 batting average. Story hit .294 and scored 111 runs and Blackmon batted . 314 with 112 runs so those guys could emerge as candidates, too.
Best shot at Cy Young - Gray
Gray needs to be much better than 11-8 with an ERA of 3.84 and 150 strikeouts to be in the mix but he's probably got the best shot on paper coming in.
Need a big season from - McMahon
Lineups in baseball need more than three guys. We know what Arenado, Story and Blackmon and can and likely will do. McMahon can play first, second or third base and will be a solid utility knife for the Rockies. If he has a better than average year, the Rockies could get to 30 wins.
Giants
I don't expect much from the Giants this year. And if you go into a season with aging pitchers Cueto and Samardzija, they probably don't think much of their team either.
As a Reds fan, I have a big admiration for what Cueto has done in his career. But he was limited to nine starts in 2018 and just four last year. If he's healthy, he can pitch as his career ERA is 3.35.
I will also root for might-be-closer Tony Watson as I covered the kid during his prep days in Iowa.
Buster Posey is not playing this year due to COVID-19 concerns and veterans like Belt, Crawford and Longoria all hit under .250 last season.
If the Giants get to 25 wins that would be a successful season. But they might be headed for about 20 wins.
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