National League Central
We come to the division that I pay most attention to. I am a Cincinnati Reds fan and I will be picking them to win this division.
I am not sure why other than they made a bunch of winning moves this offseason. The Reds have finished either fourth or fifth the past five years after trading away big pieces to the last postseason run they had.
I think the NL Central is the most competitive division in baseball. There probably won't be a 40-win team in there. But the top four teams are all projected to win around 31 games this summer. If anyone gets to 35, I think that's enough to win it.
The Reds added Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama to the lineup, Wade Miley a rotation that was already pretty darn good and Pedro Strop to the bullpen. If this team hits, I think they win the division.
The Cardinals are a team I hate but respect. They are always in the mix no matter what the roster looks like. As I researched the teams in this division, I just don't know the Cardinals do it. The roster is not anything special. But they pitch and play defense. I am not sure where the offense will come from, but if they find some they might win 35 games.
The Cubs and Brewers also could both win the division if the ball bounces the right way. But the Cubs pitching staff is old and injury prone and the Brewers might be missing a few pieces on offense.
The Pirates aren't going to be the worst last-place team in baseball but I think they are headed for last. Josh Bell is fantastic, but the rotation has a lot of questions.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Reds (31.5)
2. Cardinals (32.5)
3. Cubs (32.5)
4. Brewers (31.5)
5. Pirates (25.5)
Reds
The Reds pitching staff of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Miley and Anthony DeSclafani was voted as the third best staff in baseball by MLB Network I think it was. That's pretty fair. If they get into the playoffs facing a combo of any of those guys will be tough to beat.
Especially since they beefed up the lineup with Castellanos, Moustakas and Akiyama, who will all start most days and provide the offense with a much-needed boost.
Eugenio Suarez hit 49 bombs last year but also struck out a lot. His .930 OPS was impressive though and he'll be in the middle of the lineup with Castellanos and Moustakas.
Castellanos hit .289 last year but after being traded to the Cubs at the deadline, he batted .321 with a 1.002 OPS. I think some of his 58 doubles turn into homers at Great American Ball Park. Moustakas will probably get crapped on by fans for hitting .250 but if he hits 15 homers in a 60 game season and has an .845 OPS like last year, that's a big boost.
Four of the Reds' starters had ERAs under 4 last year. And I like the bullpen, which includes Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Rasiel Iglesias, Robert Stephenson, Strop and Lucas Sims.
I can't wait to see Lorenzen used in multiple ways, too. I think he'll get some time in the outfield and he might be the guy they use on second base to start extra innings.
Best chance at MVP - Suarez
As much as I love the signings of the new guys, the old guard is still the face of the this franchise. Suarez's smile and personality makes him a fan favorite. He could hit 20 homers in 60 games and if the Reds are winning the division as I predict, he'll be in the running for MVP.
Best chance at Cy Young - Castillo
Gray will be the opening day starter, but Castillo still has the best stuff to me. Castillo struck out 226 batters last year and he was 15-8 overall. The Reds realistically have three guys who could win a Cy Young and two others who both were under 4 in ERA last summer.
Need a big season from - Bauer
I could have gone a few different directions with this one. Castellanos and Akiyama certainly need big seasons this summer. Nick Senzel needs to stay healthy and play like the first-round pick he was. But if Bauer pitches like he did last year after coming over to Cincinnati, the Reds will not win the division. If he's more like 2018, they might run away with it. He's that important to this short season I think. I also think he could pitch every four days.
Cardinals
A few of my closest friends who love the Cardinals were upset at the lack of moves they made this summer. There aren't a lot of new faces but they did win the division last year so maybe there wasn't a lot of moves to make?
They are always in the mix and if they win the division again, it will be because the pitching and defense remained strong.
Jack Flaherty is back as the ace of the staff. But will the rest of the rotation be good enough? Those names include Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA last year) and Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19).
I also think Carlos Martinez returns to the rotation after moving to the bullpen last year. His ERA has been well under 4 the past 5 seasons. Just three years ago, he struck out 217 and had an ERA of 3.64 as a starter.
The bullpen can be good. But the expected closer, Giovanny Gallegos, is not even in the country yet. I think Ryan Helsey is the team's closer for most of the year.
This team will go as far as the bats take them. Can Paul Goldschmidt bounce back? And how good can guys like Tommy Edman, Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong be in supporting roles?
Best chance at MVP - Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt signed a big contact with STL a few years back but 2019 was the worst of his career as his .260 average and .821 OPS were the worst of his career. He has the ability to bounce back and be the MVP type player he once was. St. Louis needs him to be that guy this summer.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Flaherty
Flaherty is a guy who could actually win the Cy Young. The division has a lot of great starting pitchers. Flaherty struck out 231 dudes last year and his ERA was 2.75. Those are Cy Young numbers. If he stays on the course, he'll be in the mix.
Need a big season from - Edman
You could put Goldschmidt here, too, but because I want to give multiple names, I will go with Edman. He wasn't an everyday player all season last year but had an OPS of .850 and batted .304 in 92 games. He will steal bases, too. I think he plays more from the start this year, especially with the DH. If he can play as well as he did last year, the Cardinals could be back in position to take the Central.
Cubs
The Cubs, like the Cardinals, are projected to win 32.5 games. But unlike the Reds and Cardinals, I don't think the pitching is good enough. The bats could be better than both teams though.
Jon Lester is too old and it showed last year with his 4.46 ERA. He'll be out there every 5th day and he'll fight to the end but I just don't think he has much left.
They'll be without Jose Quintana for a bit after he suffered an injury. Kyle Hendricks is the opening day starter and should be the best pitcher of the bunch. He had the best ERA last year.
Yu Darvish was pretty good last year with 229 strikeouts and an ERA just under 4. He was shelled in an exhibition game against the White Sox tonight so that might not be too promising.
The lineup is potent and will be the reason the Cubs will the division if they do. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber all hit at least 24 homers last year.
With the addition of the DH, the Cubs will have some options to make sure the best guys are in the lineup every day.
Best chance at MVP - Rizzo
It might be Baez. But the old man still had a .924 OPS last year, which was best on the team. Rizzo also was better than Baez in average and RBIs but Baez had 38 doubles. I could see Bryant or Schwarber being in the mix, too, but I will go with Rizzo because he's the grizzly veteran who doesn't appear to be slowing down.
Best shot at Cy Young - Hendricks
He's the best of the bunch and I am not sure it's close. Darvish's strikeout numbers will be sexy, but Hendricks has that Greg Maddux vibe where he is effective without overpowering hitters. If he has an ERA close to what he had last year, then he'll be the top vote-getter on his team for the award.
Need a big season from - Craig Kimbrel
The Cubs' bullpen lost lead against the White Sox a few days ago and the bullpen was an issue last year. If Kimbrel has an ERA of 6.53 this summer, the Cubs will be looking for another closer. But if he can regroup and bounce back, the wins he helps the team get will go a long ways in the final standings.
Brewers
I looked at social media after I saw a baseball "expert" gave his Central predictions. Jim Bowden also had the Brewers fourth and fans of that team were not happy, saying everyone sleeps on this team.
Maybe they are right. The rotation doesn't have sexy names and there is talent in the lineup. But I don't think it's enough to be better than the other three teams.
Christian Yelich is fantastic. Keston Hiura was great as a rookie. And they added Avisail Garcia in the offseason, but Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain aren't getting any younger.
The rotation includes Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson. It's a good trio. They all three had ERAs under 4 so it might be better than the Cubs overall. Josh Hader also is one of the best relief pitchers in the game and could be used four or five times a week in a role outside of closer.
Best chance at MVP - Yelich
Yelich likely wins the MVP last year if he doesn't get hurt. He still batted .329 and had an OPS of 1.100. His OBP was .429, he hit 44 homers, stole 30 bases and had 97 RBIs. He could hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases in 60 games. If he bats .320 again, he'll be a favorite to win the award.
Best shot at Cy Young - Woodruff
I'm a big fan of Woodruff. I think he has a big year after going 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts last year. He's not too known yet but another season like last year and that will change.
Need a big season from - Huira
Yelich needs a running mate or a Robin. Huira hit .303 and had an OPS of .938 as a rookie last year. He'll be a starter from Day 1 this summer so if the numbers stay around last year, the Brewers will be in the mix for at least 30 wins.
Pirates
After last season's bean ball incidents, the Pirates have moved to the top of my least favorite list. They get so butt hurt about everything and hate having fun while playing baseball.
Josh Bell could be an MVP candidate after hitting .277 with 37 homers, 116 RBIs and an OPS of .936. The opening day starter is Joe Musgrove, who went 11-12 last year with an ERA of 4.44.
So the pitching staff has a lot of questions and outside of Bell, there's not a ton of known bats in the lineup.
Gregory Polanco played just 42 games last year and if he can bounce back and have a big year, it will help push the Pirates closer to 30 wins.
I hope Chris Archer gets shelled every game. But being an Iowan, I also hope Mitch Keller has a strong season as he likely moves to the rotation full time.
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