American League West
For the first time, I am going to disagree with the Vegas projections for the AL West. I think the Astros and Athletics are again at the top, but I am going to be pick the Rangers over the Angels for third.
I like the Rangers pitching staff much more than I like the Angels' arms. I know the Angels have Mike Trout (maybe) and Anthony Rendon, but no pitching to me usually means not much success. The Angels are counting on guys like Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy to be the aces and that's not good.
I pick the Angels as a trendy selection every year it seems. I am not making that same mistake this season.
The Astros are once again loaded. If they can find starting pitching after Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke then they can return to the World Series.
The Athletics will rely again on some young dudes. The best two pitchers and three of their four best position players have four years or less of MLB experience.
The Mariners won't be much of a factor, but there are a few guys I am anxious to watch this short summer season.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Astros (35.5)
2. Athletics (33.5)
3. Rangers (29.5)
4. Angels (31.5)
5. Mariners (24.5)
Astros
It's hard not to like the Astros again, even if they did lose Gerritt Cole to the Yankees. They still have veteran studs Verlander and Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. returns to the rotation this summer. If Jose Urquidy can take that next jump, and Dusty Baker allows him to, then the Astros probably don't miss a beat.
The everyday lineup with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick is as good as any lineup in baseball.
Even the bullpen, led by Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly, is better than average. The only thing that will slow down this team is injuries. And with as many purpose pitches to the body we probably see, that is entirely possible.
Best chance at MVP - Bregman
I could pick about four of the guys I mentioned above. Bregman, to me, is the best of the bunch. Last season was his best in the majors when he hit .296 with 41 homers, 112 RBIs, 37 doubles and a league-best 119 walks. My next choice would be Yordan Alvarez because he can could 20 homers in 60 games.
Best chance at Cy Young - Verlander
Greinke was fantastic too in 2019, but Verlander's numbers last year were out of this world good. Cole won the Cy Young, but you could have given it to Verlander and I wouldn't have complained. That might even motivate the aging veteran who went 21-6 with an ERA of 2.58 and 300 strikeouts last season. He has to fall off at some point, right? Maybe. But I won't bet against him until that time comes.
Need a big season from - Correa
Correa played 153 games in 2016. Since then, he hasn't played more than 110. With 60 games on the schedule, missing 20 games because of injury could be the difference between top seed and No. 3 seed in the AL. I wanted to say Tucker here because I think he breaks out, but Dusty Baker's track record of not playing young guys may not help his cause. He's ready though and needs at-bats.
Athletics
The franchise known for Moneyball will have to do that again to stay near the top of the division. The pitching staff has some talent, but the top two guys combined for 21 starts last year.
Frankie Montas will get the ball on Opening Day, but he made only 16 starts last year. He was impressive at 9-2 with an ERA of 2.63 and 103 strikeouts. Sean Manaea also made only five starts last season.
Mike Fiers needs another big seasons and Liam Hendriks in the bullpen is one of the best in the game.
Offensively, the group is again young. Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have only played in the league for two years and Ramon Laureano was a rookie last year. Marcus Semien is back as is the other Khris Davis.
Best chance at MVP - Semien
Olson and Chapman both hit 36 homers and had 91 RBIs last year, but Semien's season was better. He quietly hit 33 bombs with 92 RBIs, 43 doubles and 10 steals. If he hits close to the .285 h he hit last year, he is the best chance they have at the top honor.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Montas
As I said above, Montas was great in a limited number of starts last season. No one is really sure how effective starting pitchers will be early or how long they'll go. Montas, as the Opening Day starter, is the team's top candidate for the Cy Young.
Need a big season from - Mike Fiers
Fiers was one of the whistle blowers in the Astros scandal. He'll be throwing against a fantastic lineup in Houston so he'll have to be on his game. But if he can repeat his 3.90 ERA, the Athletics could be in the mix to overtake the Astros.
Rangers
The Rangers don't have a Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon, but they do have a much better pitching staff that features Corey Kluber, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. And the latter two had better than average seasons last year.
If Joey Gallo can cut down on strikeouts and find a way to stay healthy, the offense can be good with Danny Santana, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor and Willie Calhoun.
Best chance at MVP - Santana
Gallo might be the answer here. But I just don't trust him to be on the field enough. Santana has proven to at least be a consistent cog in the offense. He hit .283 last year, was a 20-20 guy and drove in 80 runs. I like him a lot.
Best shot at Cy Young - Lynn
Kluber is a former Cy Young, but he's coming off an injury that shelved him for most of last season. Lynn went 16-11 with an ERA of 3.67 and 246 strikeouts last year. If he's that good again, the Rangers will be better than the Angels.
Need a big season from - Kluber
The shiny new toy in the rotation is Kluber. He only made seven starts last year and had an ERA of 5.80. That was one year after going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He needs to get close to his former best if the Rangers want to take a step forward in the win column.
Angels
The Angels have big names in the lineup. But Albert Pujols and Justin Upton are on the downside of their careers.
Trout has said he may not even play this year as his wife is pregnant. That would be a huge blow to the team if he's not out there. Rendon had his best season in his contract year. How he plays after he got the money will be key for the Angels.
Upton only played 63 games last year and Pujols batted .244 with 23 homers and 93 RBIs. I like Tommy La Stella and a healthy Shohei Ohtani would be big.
I don't trust the pitching staff. If Julio Teheran is the ace, that's an issue. Nothing against him but a 10-11 record with an ERA of 3.81 doesn't scream ace.
And how many chances is Dylan Bundy going to get. Bundy was a big-time prospect in the Orioles organization but is 38-45 in his career with an ERA of 4.67.
Best chance at MVP - Rendon
If Trout plays, then he's the guy. I think he plays, but enough folks are saying he might not so who knows. Rendon hit .319 with 34 homers, 126 RBIs and 44 doubles last year. That's MVP stuff if he can duplicate that production.
Best shot at Cy Young - Ohtani
Ohtani will pitch every Sunday this summer if he can stay healthy. He won't win the Cy Young, but I can't pick Bundy or Teheran.
Need a big season from - Ohtani
It's Ohtani again. He'll need to pitch well on Sundays and play well when he's in the lineup, which I think will be about four or fives times a week as the DH. They need a big year from him if they want any shot at finishing in the top part of the division.
Mariners
The Mariners are picked to be slightly better than the Orioles and Tigers. But I am not totally sure why. The most experienced player is Kyle Seager and hit .239 with 23 homers and 63 RBIs last year.
They won't have anyone in the MVP or Cy Young mix. I think they need a big season from a guy like Shed Long though. The former Cincinnati Red is probably the everyday second baseman and he hit .263 with five homers in 152 at-bats last year.
The pitching staff is led by a guy who didn't pitch much in 2018 or 2019 in Taijun Walker and a relative unknown in Yusei Kikuchi.
Mallex Smith can run like the wind but he's no better than Billy Hamilton at this point in his career. Maybe he profiles as the team's best player but he'll have to hit better than .227.
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