MLB: NL East Predictions

National League East

I think the NL East and NL Central are the two hardest divisions to predict in MLB. I feel like it's safe to say that the Marlins and Pirates will be at the bottom of both divisions. But 1-4 in the Central is tough and 1-2 and 3-4 in the East are tough. 

I know the Braves and Nationals will be tops in the East. I just don't know what the order will be. The Nats are the defending champions but they lost Anthony Rendon in free agency. The Braves were close last year and added Cole Hamels to the rotation, Will Smith to the bullpen and Marcell Ozuna to the lineup to get over the hump. 

The Mets added Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to their rotation, for better or for worse. The Phillies went out and spent again, adding Zack Wheeler to the rotation and Didi Gregorius to the lineup. 

I like the Braves a lot. They will be relying on their young talent to carry the team for the most part. If the veterans can come through, I like them winning the East. But the Nationals might have the best rotation in baseball and Juan Soto is an MVP candidate. 

Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections. 

1. Braves (34.5)

2. Nationals (33.5)

3. Mets (31.5)

4. Phillies (31.5)

5. Marlins (24.5)

Braves

The rotation is underrated, the bullpen added a big piece and the lineup can score runs with anyone. It won't be easy for anyone in this division because they have to play the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jay as part of their crossover schedule, but the Braves should be the favorites to win the division. 

Adding Cole Hamels as your No. 4 starter isn't a bad way to go. He's getting older but he still had a 3.81 ERA last year for the Cubs. 

They also added Will Smith to the bullpen, and (HOT TAKE ALERT) I think he will be the team's closer not too far into the season. He had 34 saves last year with the Giants and his ERA was 2.76. The incumbent closer, Mark Melancon, has experience but only saved 11 games last year and his ERA was 3.86. 

What's not to like about the lineup? Freddie Freeman is back after surviving a tough battle with COVID-19, Ronald Acuna Jr. is one of the league's best players and Ozzie Albies is a young stud, too. If Marcell Ozuna can give them a little more than he gave the Cardinals last year, the Braves win this division

Best chance at MVP - Acuna Jr.

I was tempted to go Freeman after last year (38 homers, 121 RBIs and an .938 OPS) but that bout with COVID-19 could force him to be slow out of the gates. Acuna has a little bit to learn about show boating and whatnot but he's fun to watch. I think he only gets better from his 41 homers, 101 RBIs, 127 runs, 37 steals and .883 OPS that he had last year. On a 60-game scale of course. I think the .280 batting average might go down but the .883 OPS goes way up. 

Best chance at Cy Young - Mike Soroka

Soroka is not your typical Cy Young candidate. He won't blow the ball by you at 96 miles per hour. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out. But he was 13-4 with an ERA of 2.68 last year. If he has a season similar to that this summer, he can be in the mix again.  

Need a big season from - Ozuna

Some folks I know who root for the Cardinals were not too upset that he left town. He's a love him or hate him kind of guy I think. But he still had 29 homers and 89 RBIs last year as a main piece. In Atlanta, he's going to be in a supporting role and those numbers will work just fine. If he improves them a bit, and ups the OPS from .800 last year, the Braves will edge the Nationals in the final standings. 

Nationals

If the season ended after 60 games last year, the Nationals wouldn't have been in the playoffs. I bet the Nationals are tired of hearing that. But if the World Series champions from last year do that again, it won't be around to defend its title. 

The rotation led by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin is one of the best in baseball. Maybe the best. And having two options at closer with Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson in a short season is ideal, too. 

Juan Soto is a stud. Trea Turner and Victor Robles provide a different type of offense with their ability to steal bases. If the supporting cast of Starlin Castro, Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick and Eric Thames can pull their weight, they could sneak past the Braves for the division title. 

Also, keep an eye out for Carter Kieboom. It will be interesting to see how much he plays this summer and what he does with any kind of role he has. 

Best chance at MVP - Soto

This one is easy. Soto's OPS last year was .969. He had 34 homers, 110 RBIs and scored 110 runs. He's likely an MVP candidate for the next 7 years.   

Best shot at the Cy Young - Strasburg

I know this team has Scherzer. But I think it's Strasburg's time to be the ace of the staff. He had 251 strikeouts last year and was 18-6 with an ERA of 3.32. If he can lower the ERA, he'll be right up there with his teammate and others for the award. 

The Nationals have three guys — Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin — who struck out at least 238 guys last year. And four guys whose ERA were 3,85 or better. That's insane.   

Need a big season from - Eaton

Eaton has been one of those popular fantasy draft guys who always seems to go earlier than he should because of hype. Then an injury derails the season. Eaton needs to be better than last year when he hit .279 with 15 HRs, 49 RBIs and 103 runs. His OPS of .792 needs to get up in the mid-.800s, too.   

Mets

I went with the Mets over the Phillies but it's not easy. Both teams have identical win projection totals in Vegas. I just like the Mets pitching staff better when it comes to depth and talent. 

One thing that can often get overlooked is bullpen arms And in a short season, the Mets will throw out closer Edwin Diaz along with Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo and Brad Bach among others. There's a handful of guys who have closed before. 

If the Mets can get bounce back type years from Porcello and Wacha they can most certainly finish third in the NL East. 

Pete Alonso will likely take a step back from his awesome rookie season of 53 homers 120 RBIs and a .941 OPS. But he'll still be legit. Jeff McNeil was much better than most people think last year and Amed Rosario is a rising young shortstop. 

Best chance at MVP - Alonso

As good as McNeil was (.318 average, .916 OPS and 23 homers), this is Alonso and Jacob deGrom's team moving forward. Alonso might hit 20 homers in 60 games. He might also strike out 120 times. It will be fun to see what he does in year two. 

Best shot at Cy Young - deGrom

There's only one former Cy Young pitcher on this roster. And deGrom is one of the best in baseball. The Mets blew a lot of leads last year, which is why they strengthened the bullpen, which is why deGrom only won 11 games. But his ERA was 2.43 and he had 255 strikeouts. 

Need a big season from - Marcus Stroman

Stroman came over in a trade last year and was just OK for the Mets. He finished the season 10-13 with a 3.22 ERA but was 4-2 in New York with an ERA of 3.73. If he has a strong 2020 summer, the Mets will be better for it. And could push them over the Phillies and closer to the top two teams in the division. 

Phillies

The Phillies on paper look really good. Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler and Jake Arrieta is a good rotation. JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura appears to be a good lineup. 

But, to me, they are going to be relying on too many older guys and too many guys that get way more credit than they deserve. 

Nola can be a legit Cy Young guy. And Wheeler has good stuff. But Nola, Wheeler and Arrieta were only a combined 31-23 last year and none of them had ERAs under 3.80. 

Harper had a good year with 35 homers and 114 RBIs with an OPS of .882. But Hoskins batted .226, Gregorius' batting average was just .238 and his OPS was only .718 and McCutchen is just aging. Can you count on anyone besides Harper and Realmuto to be a difference maker in the lineup?

I am not sure. But if they can improve, then the Phillies will be better than the Mets.  

Best chance at MVP - Harper

I have gone on record saying Harper is not as good as the money they are paying him. But he's the biggest name and he had an MVP kind of year last year. The OPS will have to go up and 35 homers for Harper is not enough when Alonso hit 53 and Eugenio Suarez of the Reds blasted 49.   

Best shot at Cy Young - Nola

Nola was not as good in 2019 as he was in 2018 when his ERA was 2.37. The ERA jumped to 3.87 last year but he did have 229 strikeouts. Wheeler is due for a breakout kind of Cy Young jump but I still think Nola has the best chance to win it.    

Need a big season from - Gregorius

The Phillies won the battle for free agent Gregorius this offseason. But he'll need to hit better than .238 to be worth his money. His OPS of .718 also is too low. 

Marlins

The best player for the Marlins is Jonathan Villar. And he was better than you thought in 2019. Villar hit .274 with 24 homers, 73 RBIs, 111 runs and 40 steals for the Orioles last year. His OPS was .792, which isn't great but also isn't bad for a utility type guy.  

Corey Dickerson is a veteran who hit .293 in 133 at-bats with Philadelphia and .315 in 127 at-bats for Pittsburgh. His OPS in Pittsburgh was .924 but he's on his fifth team since 2013. 

Matt Joyce was added this offseason after playing in Atlanta last summer. Joyce batted .295 with the Braves but is playing on his fifth team in six years. 

The ace of the staff is Sandy Alcantara, but he was just 6-14 last year. The ERA wasn't bad at 3.88 and he did have 151 strikeouts. I think Alcantara has talent though and is a candidate for a most improved type award.