When I started this blog, I want another way to write, another way to vent and I wanted to write about things I can't write about in my day job.
This blog is all about venting.
The Cincinnati Reds are my favorite baseball team. They have finished in fourth or fifth place in each of the past six seasons after making the playoffs a handful of years in a row.
The club went out and made some moves to fix a bad offense from the previous season. They signed Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Aikyama to help with the lineup, added Wade Miley to an already good rotation and helped the bullpen by signing Pedro Strop.
And they are still 1-4. I know it's early. But there is no such thing as early in a 60-game season. 1-4 is like 3-15. It's not good. And frankly, I have no reason to believe things will get better.
The Reds lost two of three to what is supposed to be a bad Detroit Tigers team. And now have dropped two close games to the rival Cubs.
The Reds took two players from the Cubs roster after winning the season series last year and now suddenly can't beat them.
Baseball is frustrating. Being a fan of the Reds is frustrating. I have decided to not watch another game until they win. That means, I won't be watching Sonny Gray tomorrow. Or probably Luis Castillo on Thursday. Enough is enough. I am getting too old to be disappointed every night.
And Last Chance U just dropped on Netflix so that can hold down my time for now. I also want to binge a few other shows.
This team is maddening. Castillo, Gray and Bauer struck out 33 batters and allowed 3 ER in the first three games of the season and went 1-2. Then the Reds scored 7 runs in the first game against the Cubs and lost.
Tuesday night's game was brutal. Three hits and three runs through 8 innings. They ended up with 5 runs but it's all or nothing with this team. Either they homer and they don't score. No clutch hitting. No situational hitting. It's bad.
And when the pitching is brutal, see Wade Miley last night or the bullpen most nights, the hitting is at least good. When the pitching is great, the hitting can't be found.
I don't know if they can turn it around or not. There are still 55 games left. And other fans keep saying they are such and such games away from first place. Well, it doesn't feel positive to me.
I want to like David Bell. He seems like a great dude. And I can't fault him for looking at the numbers and being up to date with analytics.
It's the way baseball has headed. I understand Jesse Winker won't bat against lefties and I know Phil Ervin is not going to hit much against righties.
But isn't there any "I just have a feeling" left with baseball anymore. You have to know your guys. I don't think he has any kind of handle on the players. Because frankly, following the numbers 100 percent of the time is not working.
Time for a new game plan.
It would help to have Moustakas, Senzel and Tucker Barnhart in the lineup. It would also help if the Reds would just cut bait with Christian Colon and Freddy Galvis and sent Josh VanMeter to the alternate site.
If they are going to lose, I would much rather watch Jose Garcia and Tyler Stephenson every night. Stephenson just had a huge night in his debut and was nowhere to be found tonight. Bell picked Colon over Stephenson in a late-game situation with the game somewhat still in reach.
I don't get it. And it's frustrating. Now back to your regularly scheduled blog.
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Friday, July 24, 2020
Reactions from MLB Opening Night
MLB is back. And I couldn't be happier.
Unfortunately, others are more concerned with things they can't control. The fake crowd noise is horrible, the cardboard cutouts of fans in the stands is annoying and why in the hell do we have to have more playoff teams?
We are in the middle of a pandemic and folks are grumpier than ever apparently.
Don't sweat the small stuff. It doesn't really matter what they do to your TV experience. Is it really that big of a deal? Isn't it better than nothing at all? Holy cow I can't remember the last time I cared about something so trivial.
I didn't notice the fake crowd noise at all. Made no difference to me. And you can tell the cardboard cutouts are fake, but I have a good feeling I would like that better than empty seats.
A few friends of mine were involved in a text thread today. We discussed Mookie Betts' massive deal and a few of the changes to the game.
I understand there will be complaints. One of my friends loves the expanded playoffs and is OK with a runner starting on 2nd base to begin extra innings if it's only for this year. Another friend hates the expanded playoffs.
I don't mind it. The NHL and NBA both have eight playoff teams in each conference. I don't see many people arguing about that every year.
More teams in the playoffs means more games for my TV and more games for me to watch. And that's a good thing.
In a summer where we are definitely going to see players miss time due to the virus, I would hate to see a playoff caliber team miss out on the postseason because it wasn't at full strength for a portion of the year. There's already a slim margin for error in a 60-game season. Not being able to put your best foot forward because of something that is affecting everyone would be a shame.
At least by adding a few playoff teams, a team like Dodgers or Nationals or Astros can overcome a few COVID-19 cases and still make the playoffs. Juan Soto has already tested positive. There will be more. I can guarantee it.
It also keeps fans interested longer. The White Sox and Padres have young rosters and are on the verge of potential postseason runs in the near future. These 3 extra spots gives their fans a reason to believe.
The Mets and Reds postseason chances moved up to higher than 60 percent in some places after they announced 3 playoff teams were being added.
I am basically on board for whatever MLB wants to do this summer. It's hard to get worked up over silly things when we have been without something we love for so long.
Bring on baseball. And bring on another run for the Big Red Machine.
Unfortunately, others are more concerned with things they can't control. The fake crowd noise is horrible, the cardboard cutouts of fans in the stands is annoying and why in the hell do we have to have more playoff teams?
We are in the middle of a pandemic and folks are grumpier than ever apparently.
Don't sweat the small stuff. It doesn't really matter what they do to your TV experience. Is it really that big of a deal? Isn't it better than nothing at all? Holy cow I can't remember the last time I cared about something so trivial.
I didn't notice the fake crowd noise at all. Made no difference to me. And you can tell the cardboard cutouts are fake, but I have a good feeling I would like that better than empty seats.
A few friends of mine were involved in a text thread today. We discussed Mookie Betts' massive deal and a few of the changes to the game.
I understand there will be complaints. One of my friends loves the expanded playoffs and is OK with a runner starting on 2nd base to begin extra innings if it's only for this year. Another friend hates the expanded playoffs.
I don't mind it. The NHL and NBA both have eight playoff teams in each conference. I don't see many people arguing about that every year.
More teams in the playoffs means more games for my TV and more games for me to watch. And that's a good thing.
In a summer where we are definitely going to see players miss time due to the virus, I would hate to see a playoff caliber team miss out on the postseason because it wasn't at full strength for a portion of the year. There's already a slim margin for error in a 60-game season. Not being able to put your best foot forward because of something that is affecting everyone would be a shame.
At least by adding a few playoff teams, a team like Dodgers or Nationals or Astros can overcome a few COVID-19 cases and still make the playoffs. Juan Soto has already tested positive. There will be more. I can guarantee it.
It also keeps fans interested longer. The White Sox and Padres have young rosters and are on the verge of potential postseason runs in the near future. These 3 extra spots gives their fans a reason to believe.
The Mets and Reds postseason chances moved up to higher than 60 percent in some places after they announced 3 playoff teams were being added.
I am basically on board for whatever MLB wants to do this summer. It's hard to get worked up over silly things when we have been without something we love for so long.
Bring on baseball. And bring on another run for the Big Red Machine.
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
MLB: NL West Predictions
National League West
The final preview and predictions blog comes in the National League West. The one division in baseball that likely won't be close.
The L.A. Dodgers are loaded and projected to win 38.5 games in Vegas. The next best projection is the Padres at 31.5 so the betting world has the Dodgers running away with this division. And with good reason. The Dodgers don't have a lot of holes.
The best pitchers and guys with the best shot win MVP are on that team outside of guys like Nolan Arenado in Colorado and Ketel Marte in Arizona.
The Dodgers have reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger and now $300 million man Mookie Betts as he and the Dodgers reached a massive 13-year deal to keep the superstar in Southern California for maybe the rest of his career.
Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are both good enough to win the Cy Young, too.
The Diamondbacks added Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte this offseason and they will go nicely with Ketel Marte, who was fantastic last year.
The Padres' young talent is unreal as their minor league system has been one of the best in baseball for awhile. Chris Paddack is a young ace that still needs to prove himself, Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to take a step after a strong rookie year that was limited by design to keep him healthy long term and the addition of Tommy Pham could be huge.
It's hard not to like the Rockies' trio of Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, but the pitching staff is not proven.
The Giants are running aging veterans Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to lead the pitching staff and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria are older veterans who had down years last year but are still the best players on the roster.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Dodgers (38.5)
2. Diamondbacks (30.5)
3. Padres (31.5)
4. Rockies (27.5)
5. Giants (25.5)
Dodgers
This team may win 40 games. I think their floor is about 38 and their ceiling is 45. That's how good the roster is.
Bellinger. Betts. Max Muncy. Justin Turner. Corey Seager. AJ. Pollock. Gavin Lux. That's a loaded lineup. And Buehler and Kershaw are joined by Julio Urias, Ross Stripling and Dustin May in the rotation.
The biggest question mark is not a negative. It's just something I don't know yet. Who is going to start after Buehler and Kershaw? How healthy is Alex Wood? Is Stripling more of a long reliever type and how much are they going to count on young stud May in the rotation?
Best chance at MVP - Bellinger
He was the MVP last year in the NL so it'd be foolish for me to pick anyone else. Betts has a shot after having an OPS of .915 last year and scoring an AL-high 135 runs. He also batted .295. But Bellinger hit .305 with 47 homers, 115 RBIs, 121 runs and 15 steals. His OPS was an incredible 1.035. If he does that again over a 60-game schedule, he'll again get first-place votes for the award.
Best chance at Cy Young - Buehler
Kershaw is aging but was still great last year. His ERA was 3.03 but his FIP showed that he was bit lucky. I haven't used FIP with any of my previews yet but it's a valuable tool to see how good pitchers really were. Buehler's FIP of 3.01 was better than his 3.26 ERA and he struck out 215 in his second full season.
Need a big season from - Urias
This may be a surprise, but I just don't think the lineup with have many issues. The Dodgers need a third starter to be able to push past their wall in the playoffs. If Urias is that guy, it will be massive for them. Urias pitched in 37 games last year but made only eight starts. His ERA was 2.49 though and he had 85 strikeouts. He's got talent and if they move him to a full-time starter he can push this team over the top to a World Series title.
Diamondbacks
Picking the second place team in this division was tough. Outside of the Giants, the other three teams have a lot to like.
I went with the D-Backs. Their trio of Ketel Marte, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar rivals the Rockies threesome but they have better pitching. And I am not sure the Padres are ready to make the jump everyone thinks they'll make.
Ketel Marte was an MVP type player last year. Getting Starling Marte away from a bad Pittsburgh team will help, too. Christian Walker had an .875 OPS as well.
The pitching staff isn't great but I trust guys like Bumgarner, Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray more than I trust the top guys on the other teams.
Best chance at MVP - Ketel Marte
I owned Marte in fantasy leagues last year. A relatively unknown is now closer to a household name for baseball fans. He batted .329 with 32 homers, 92 RBIs, 97 runs and 10 steals. His OPS was .981, which was among the best in baseball.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Gallen
Bumgarner has done it before but he is aging. Gallen only made 15 starts last year but his ERA was 2.81 between Miami and Arizona. He also had 96 strikeouts. I expect him to break out this summer and push the D-backs to the runner-up spot in the division
Need a big season from - Starling Marte
They added Starling Marte for a reason. The dude hit .295 with 23 homers, 85 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 steals and had an OPS of .845. He will most likely bat near the top of the order with Ketel Marte and get on base a lot for guys like Escobar and Walker to bring home.
Padres
I don't know why the Padres are so much more liked with the Vegas projections than the Rockies, but the young talent is there. There are a lot of unknowns heading in the season. If they all hit, then they will probably finish second in the division.
The rotation features 24-year-old Chris Paddack, whose rookie season included an ERA of 3.33 and 153 strikeouts. I think Dinelson Lamet and Joey Lucchessi are capable but they haven't done it on the big stage yet.
Machado was one of the big free agent signings last offseason for San Diego but he hit only .256 and his OPS was .796 last year.
Unleashing Tatis Jr. for the entire 60 games will be fun to watch. And I love the addition of veteran Tommy Pham. Can other veterans like Wil Meyers, Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar do enough to make the Padres a contender?
Best chance at MVP - Tatis Jr.
The Padres shut down Tatis after only 84 games last year. But he hit .317 and had an OPS of .969. He's a guy who can hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases this summer. If he gets close to last year, he has the name recognition to be in the mix for MVP.
Best shot at Cy Young - Paddack
Paddack won't win the Cy Young but he gives the Padres their best shot. He was 9-7 last year and his ERA was good enough to make the cut. He'll start the season as the No. 1 starter and that also helps.
Need a big season from - Machado
Maybe what we saw last year from Machado is his new normal. I didn't think he was worth the money the Padres gave him last offseason. He can prove me wrong by improving on last season. The Padres definitely need him to rebound.
Rockies
Arenado, Story and Blackmon were all had OPS seasons of better than .900, but who else is there. I like Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson's versatility, but the pitching staff just wasn't that great last year.
I know playing inside Coors has a lot to do with that. But German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray will have to be better if Colorado wants to finish above their 28-win Vegas projection.
Best chance at MVP - Arenado
Arenado continues to be one of the best players in baseball. His OPS last year was .962 and he hit 41 homers with 118 RBIs, 102 runs and a .315 batting average. Story hit .294 and scored 111 runs and Blackmon batted . 314 with 112 runs so those guys could emerge as candidates, too.
Best shot at Cy Young - Gray
Gray needs to be much better than 11-8 with an ERA of 3.84 and 150 strikeouts to be in the mix but he's probably got the best shot on paper coming in.
Need a big season from - McMahon
Lineups in baseball need more than three guys. We know what Arenado, Story and Blackmon and can and likely will do. McMahon can play first, second or third base and will be a solid utility knife for the Rockies. If he has a better than average year, the Rockies could get to 30 wins.
Giants
I don't expect much from the Giants this year. And if you go into a season with aging pitchers Cueto and Samardzija, they probably don't think much of their team either.
As a Reds fan, I have a big admiration for what Cueto has done in his career. But he was limited to nine starts in 2018 and just four last year. If he's healthy, he can pitch as his career ERA is 3.35.
I will also root for might-be-closer Tony Watson as I covered the kid during his prep days in Iowa.
Buster Posey is not playing this year due to COVID-19 concerns and veterans like Belt, Crawford and Longoria all hit under .250 last season.
If the Giants get to 25 wins that would be a successful season. But they might be headed for about 20 wins.
The final preview and predictions blog comes in the National League West. The one division in baseball that likely won't be close.
The L.A. Dodgers are loaded and projected to win 38.5 games in Vegas. The next best projection is the Padres at 31.5 so the betting world has the Dodgers running away with this division. And with good reason. The Dodgers don't have a lot of holes.
The best pitchers and guys with the best shot win MVP are on that team outside of guys like Nolan Arenado in Colorado and Ketel Marte in Arizona.
The Dodgers have reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger and now $300 million man Mookie Betts as he and the Dodgers reached a massive 13-year deal to keep the superstar in Southern California for maybe the rest of his career.
Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are both good enough to win the Cy Young, too.
The Diamondbacks added Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte this offseason and they will go nicely with Ketel Marte, who was fantastic last year.
The Padres' young talent is unreal as their minor league system has been one of the best in baseball for awhile. Chris Paddack is a young ace that still needs to prove himself, Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to take a step after a strong rookie year that was limited by design to keep him healthy long term and the addition of Tommy Pham could be huge.
It's hard not to like the Rockies' trio of Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, but the pitching staff is not proven.
The Giants are running aging veterans Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to lead the pitching staff and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria are older veterans who had down years last year but are still the best players on the roster.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Dodgers (38.5)
2. Diamondbacks (30.5)
3. Padres (31.5)
4. Rockies (27.5)
5. Giants (25.5)
Dodgers
This team may win 40 games. I think their floor is about 38 and their ceiling is 45. That's how good the roster is.
Bellinger. Betts. Max Muncy. Justin Turner. Corey Seager. AJ. Pollock. Gavin Lux. That's a loaded lineup. And Buehler and Kershaw are joined by Julio Urias, Ross Stripling and Dustin May in the rotation.
The biggest question mark is not a negative. It's just something I don't know yet. Who is going to start after Buehler and Kershaw? How healthy is Alex Wood? Is Stripling more of a long reliever type and how much are they going to count on young stud May in the rotation?
Best chance at MVP - Bellinger
He was the MVP last year in the NL so it'd be foolish for me to pick anyone else. Betts has a shot after having an OPS of .915 last year and scoring an AL-high 135 runs. He also batted .295. But Bellinger hit .305 with 47 homers, 115 RBIs, 121 runs and 15 steals. His OPS was an incredible 1.035. If he does that again over a 60-game schedule, he'll again get first-place votes for the award.
Best chance at Cy Young - Buehler
Kershaw is aging but was still great last year. His ERA was 3.03 but his FIP showed that he was bit lucky. I haven't used FIP with any of my previews yet but it's a valuable tool to see how good pitchers really were. Buehler's FIP of 3.01 was better than his 3.26 ERA and he struck out 215 in his second full season.
Need a big season from - Urias
This may be a surprise, but I just don't think the lineup with have many issues. The Dodgers need a third starter to be able to push past their wall in the playoffs. If Urias is that guy, it will be massive for them. Urias pitched in 37 games last year but made only eight starts. His ERA was 2.49 though and he had 85 strikeouts. He's got talent and if they move him to a full-time starter he can push this team over the top to a World Series title.
Diamondbacks
Picking the second place team in this division was tough. Outside of the Giants, the other three teams have a lot to like.
I went with the D-Backs. Their trio of Ketel Marte, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar rivals the Rockies threesome but they have better pitching. And I am not sure the Padres are ready to make the jump everyone thinks they'll make.
Ketel Marte was an MVP type player last year. Getting Starling Marte away from a bad Pittsburgh team will help, too. Christian Walker had an .875 OPS as well.
The pitching staff isn't great but I trust guys like Bumgarner, Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray more than I trust the top guys on the other teams.
Best chance at MVP - Ketel Marte
I owned Marte in fantasy leagues last year. A relatively unknown is now closer to a household name for baseball fans. He batted .329 with 32 homers, 92 RBIs, 97 runs and 10 steals. His OPS was .981, which was among the best in baseball.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Gallen
Bumgarner has done it before but he is aging. Gallen only made 15 starts last year but his ERA was 2.81 between Miami and Arizona. He also had 96 strikeouts. I expect him to break out this summer and push the D-backs to the runner-up spot in the division
Need a big season from - Starling Marte
They added Starling Marte for a reason. The dude hit .295 with 23 homers, 85 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 steals and had an OPS of .845. He will most likely bat near the top of the order with Ketel Marte and get on base a lot for guys like Escobar and Walker to bring home.
Padres
I don't know why the Padres are so much more liked with the Vegas projections than the Rockies, but the young talent is there. There are a lot of unknowns heading in the season. If they all hit, then they will probably finish second in the division.
The rotation features 24-year-old Chris Paddack, whose rookie season included an ERA of 3.33 and 153 strikeouts. I think Dinelson Lamet and Joey Lucchessi are capable but they haven't done it on the big stage yet.
Machado was one of the big free agent signings last offseason for San Diego but he hit only .256 and his OPS was .796 last year.
Unleashing Tatis Jr. for the entire 60 games will be fun to watch. And I love the addition of veteran Tommy Pham. Can other veterans like Wil Meyers, Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar do enough to make the Padres a contender?
Best chance at MVP - Tatis Jr.
The Padres shut down Tatis after only 84 games last year. But he hit .317 and had an OPS of .969. He's a guy who can hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases this summer. If he gets close to last year, he has the name recognition to be in the mix for MVP.
Best shot at Cy Young - Paddack
Paddack won't win the Cy Young but he gives the Padres their best shot. He was 9-7 last year and his ERA was good enough to make the cut. He'll start the season as the No. 1 starter and that also helps.
Need a big season from - Machado
Maybe what we saw last year from Machado is his new normal. I didn't think he was worth the money the Padres gave him last offseason. He can prove me wrong by improving on last season. The Padres definitely need him to rebound.
Rockies
Arenado, Story and Blackmon were all had OPS seasons of better than .900, but who else is there. I like Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson's versatility, but the pitching staff just wasn't that great last year.
I know playing inside Coors has a lot to do with that. But German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray will have to be better if Colorado wants to finish above their 28-win Vegas projection.
Best chance at MVP - Arenado
Arenado continues to be one of the best players in baseball. His OPS last year was .962 and he hit 41 homers with 118 RBIs, 102 runs and a .315 batting average. Story hit .294 and scored 111 runs and Blackmon batted . 314 with 112 runs so those guys could emerge as candidates, too.
Best shot at Cy Young - Gray
Gray needs to be much better than 11-8 with an ERA of 3.84 and 150 strikeouts to be in the mix but he's probably got the best shot on paper coming in.
Need a big season from - McMahon
Lineups in baseball need more than three guys. We know what Arenado, Story and Blackmon and can and likely will do. McMahon can play first, second or third base and will be a solid utility knife for the Rockies. If he has a better than average year, the Rockies could get to 30 wins.
Giants
I don't expect much from the Giants this year. And if you go into a season with aging pitchers Cueto and Samardzija, they probably don't think much of their team either.
As a Reds fan, I have a big admiration for what Cueto has done in his career. But he was limited to nine starts in 2018 and just four last year. If he's healthy, he can pitch as his career ERA is 3.35.
I will also root for might-be-closer Tony Watson as I covered the kid during his prep days in Iowa.
Buster Posey is not playing this year due to COVID-19 concerns and veterans like Belt, Crawford and Longoria all hit under .250 last season.
If the Giants get to 25 wins that would be a successful season. But they might be headed for about 20 wins.
Monday, July 20, 2020
MLB: NL Central Predictions
National League Central
We come to the division that I pay most attention to. I am a Cincinnati Reds fan and I will be picking them to win this division.
I am not sure why other than they made a bunch of winning moves this offseason. The Reds have finished either fourth or fifth the past five years after trading away big pieces to the last postseason run they had.
I think the NL Central is the most competitive division in baseball. There probably won't be a 40-win team in there. But the top four teams are all projected to win around 31 games this summer. If anyone gets to 35, I think that's enough to win it.
The Reds added Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama to the lineup, Wade Miley a rotation that was already pretty darn good and Pedro Strop to the bullpen. If this team hits, I think they win the division.
The Cardinals are a team I hate but respect. They are always in the mix no matter what the roster looks like. As I researched the teams in this division, I just don't know the Cardinals do it. The roster is not anything special. But they pitch and play defense. I am not sure where the offense will come from, but if they find some they might win 35 games.
The Cubs and Brewers also could both win the division if the ball bounces the right way. But the Cubs pitching staff is old and injury prone and the Brewers might be missing a few pieces on offense.
The Pirates aren't going to be the worst last-place team in baseball but I think they are headed for last. Josh Bell is fantastic, but the rotation has a lot of questions.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Reds (31.5)
2. Cardinals (32.5)
3. Cubs (32.5)
4. Brewers (31.5)
5. Pirates (25.5)
Reds
The Reds pitching staff of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Miley and Anthony DeSclafani was voted as the third best staff in baseball by MLB Network I think it was. That's pretty fair. If they get into the playoffs facing a combo of any of those guys will be tough to beat.
Especially since they beefed up the lineup with Castellanos, Moustakas and Akiyama, who will all start most days and provide the offense with a much-needed boost.
Eugenio Suarez hit 49 bombs last year but also struck out a lot. His .930 OPS was impressive though and he'll be in the middle of the lineup with Castellanos and Moustakas.
Castellanos hit .289 last year but after being traded to the Cubs at the deadline, he batted .321 with a 1.002 OPS. I think some of his 58 doubles turn into homers at Great American Ball Park. Moustakas will probably get crapped on by fans for hitting .250 but if he hits 15 homers in a 60 game season and has an .845 OPS like last year, that's a big boost.
Four of the Reds' starters had ERAs under 4 last year. And I like the bullpen, which includes Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Rasiel Iglesias, Robert Stephenson, Strop and Lucas Sims.
I can't wait to see Lorenzen used in multiple ways, too. I think he'll get some time in the outfield and he might be the guy they use on second base to start extra innings.
Best chance at MVP - Suarez
As much as I love the signings of the new guys, the old guard is still the face of the this franchise. Suarez's smile and personality makes him a fan favorite. He could hit 20 homers in 60 games and if the Reds are winning the division as I predict, he'll be in the running for MVP.
Best chance at Cy Young - Castillo
Gray will be the opening day starter, but Castillo still has the best stuff to me. Castillo struck out 226 batters last year and he was 15-8 overall. The Reds realistically have three guys who could win a Cy Young and two others who both were under 4 in ERA last summer.
Need a big season from - Bauer
I could have gone a few different directions with this one. Castellanos and Akiyama certainly need big seasons this summer. Nick Senzel needs to stay healthy and play like the first-round pick he was. But if Bauer pitches like he did last year after coming over to Cincinnati, the Reds will not win the division. If he's more like 2018, they might run away with it. He's that important to this short season I think. I also think he could pitch every four days.
Cardinals
A few of my closest friends who love the Cardinals were upset at the lack of moves they made this summer. There aren't a lot of new faces but they did win the division last year so maybe there wasn't a lot of moves to make?
They are always in the mix and if they win the division again, it will be because the pitching and defense remained strong.
Jack Flaherty is back as the ace of the staff. But will the rest of the rotation be good enough? Those names include Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA last year) and Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19).
I also think Carlos Martinez returns to the rotation after moving to the bullpen last year. His ERA has been well under 4 the past 5 seasons. Just three years ago, he struck out 217 and had an ERA of 3.64 as a starter.
The bullpen can be good. But the expected closer, Giovanny Gallegos, is not even in the country yet. I think Ryan Helsey is the team's closer for most of the year.
This team will go as far as the bats take them. Can Paul Goldschmidt bounce back? And how good can guys like Tommy Edman, Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong be in supporting roles?
Best chance at MVP - Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt signed a big contact with STL a few years back but 2019 was the worst of his career as his .260 average and .821 OPS were the worst of his career. He has the ability to bounce back and be the MVP type player he once was. St. Louis needs him to be that guy this summer.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Flaherty
Flaherty is a guy who could actually win the Cy Young. The division has a lot of great starting pitchers. Flaherty struck out 231 dudes last year and his ERA was 2.75. Those are Cy Young numbers. If he stays on the course, he'll be in the mix.
Need a big season from - Edman
You could put Goldschmidt here, too, but because I want to give multiple names, I will go with Edman. He wasn't an everyday player all season last year but had an OPS of .850 and batted .304 in 92 games. He will steal bases, too. I think he plays more from the start this year, especially with the DH. If he can play as well as he did last year, the Cardinals could be back in position to take the Central.
Cubs
The Cubs, like the Cardinals, are projected to win 32.5 games. But unlike the Reds and Cardinals, I don't think the pitching is good enough. The bats could be better than both teams though.
Jon Lester is too old and it showed last year with his 4.46 ERA. He'll be out there every 5th day and he'll fight to the end but I just don't think he has much left.
They'll be without Jose Quintana for a bit after he suffered an injury. Kyle Hendricks is the opening day starter and should be the best pitcher of the bunch. He had the best ERA last year.
Yu Darvish was pretty good last year with 229 strikeouts and an ERA just under 4. He was shelled in an exhibition game against the White Sox tonight so that might not be too promising.
The lineup is potent and will be the reason the Cubs will the division if they do. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber all hit at least 24 homers last year.
With the addition of the DH, the Cubs will have some options to make sure the best guys are in the lineup every day.
Best chance at MVP - Rizzo
It might be Baez. But the old man still had a .924 OPS last year, which was best on the team. Rizzo also was better than Baez in average and RBIs but Baez had 38 doubles. I could see Bryant or Schwarber being in the mix, too, but I will go with Rizzo because he's the grizzly veteran who doesn't appear to be slowing down.
Best shot at Cy Young - Hendricks
He's the best of the bunch and I am not sure it's close. Darvish's strikeout numbers will be sexy, but Hendricks has that Greg Maddux vibe where he is effective without overpowering hitters. If he has an ERA close to what he had last year, then he'll be the top vote-getter on his team for the award.
Need a big season from - Craig Kimbrel
The Cubs' bullpen lost lead against the White Sox a few days ago and the bullpen was an issue last year. If Kimbrel has an ERA of 6.53 this summer, the Cubs will be looking for another closer. But if he can regroup and bounce back, the wins he helps the team get will go a long ways in the final standings.
Brewers
I looked at social media after I saw a baseball "expert" gave his Central predictions. Jim Bowden also had the Brewers fourth and fans of that team were not happy, saying everyone sleeps on this team.
Maybe they are right. The rotation doesn't have sexy names and there is talent in the lineup. But I don't think it's enough to be better than the other three teams.
Christian Yelich is fantastic. Keston Hiura was great as a rookie. And they added Avisail Garcia in the offseason, but Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain aren't getting any younger.
The rotation includes Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson. It's a good trio. They all three had ERAs under 4 so it might be better than the Cubs overall. Josh Hader also is one of the best relief pitchers in the game and could be used four or five times a week in a role outside of closer.
Best chance at MVP - Yelich
Yelich likely wins the MVP last year if he doesn't get hurt. He still batted .329 and had an OPS of 1.100. His OBP was .429, he hit 44 homers, stole 30 bases and had 97 RBIs. He could hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases in 60 games. If he bats .320 again, he'll be a favorite to win the award.
Best shot at Cy Young - Woodruff
I'm a big fan of Woodruff. I think he has a big year after going 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts last year. He's not too known yet but another season like last year and that will change.
Need a big season from - Huira
Yelich needs a running mate or a Robin. Huira hit .303 and had an OPS of .938 as a rookie last year. He'll be a starter from Day 1 this summer so if the numbers stay around last year, the Brewers will be in the mix for at least 30 wins.
Pirates
After last season's bean ball incidents, the Pirates have moved to the top of my least favorite list. They get so butt hurt about everything and hate having fun while playing baseball.
Josh Bell could be an MVP candidate after hitting .277 with 37 homers, 116 RBIs and an OPS of .936. The opening day starter is Joe Musgrove, who went 11-12 last year with an ERA of 4.44.
So the pitching staff has a lot of questions and outside of Bell, there's not a ton of known bats in the lineup.
Gregory Polanco played just 42 games last year and if he can bounce back and have a big year, it will help push the Pirates closer to 30 wins.
I hope Chris Archer gets shelled every game. But being an Iowan, I also hope Mitch Keller has a strong season as he likely moves to the rotation full time.
We come to the division that I pay most attention to. I am a Cincinnati Reds fan and I will be picking them to win this division.
I am not sure why other than they made a bunch of winning moves this offseason. The Reds have finished either fourth or fifth the past five years after trading away big pieces to the last postseason run they had.
I think the NL Central is the most competitive division in baseball. There probably won't be a 40-win team in there. But the top four teams are all projected to win around 31 games this summer. If anyone gets to 35, I think that's enough to win it.
The Reds added Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama to the lineup, Wade Miley a rotation that was already pretty darn good and Pedro Strop to the bullpen. If this team hits, I think they win the division.
The Cardinals are a team I hate but respect. They are always in the mix no matter what the roster looks like. As I researched the teams in this division, I just don't know the Cardinals do it. The roster is not anything special. But they pitch and play defense. I am not sure where the offense will come from, but if they find some they might win 35 games.
The Cubs and Brewers also could both win the division if the ball bounces the right way. But the Cubs pitching staff is old and injury prone and the Brewers might be missing a few pieces on offense.
The Pirates aren't going to be the worst last-place team in baseball but I think they are headed for last. Josh Bell is fantastic, but the rotation has a lot of questions.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Reds (31.5)
2. Cardinals (32.5)
3. Cubs (32.5)
4. Brewers (31.5)
5. Pirates (25.5)
Reds
The Reds pitching staff of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Miley and Anthony DeSclafani was voted as the third best staff in baseball by MLB Network I think it was. That's pretty fair. If they get into the playoffs facing a combo of any of those guys will be tough to beat.
Especially since they beefed up the lineup with Castellanos, Moustakas and Akiyama, who will all start most days and provide the offense with a much-needed boost.
Eugenio Suarez hit 49 bombs last year but also struck out a lot. His .930 OPS was impressive though and he'll be in the middle of the lineup with Castellanos and Moustakas.
Castellanos hit .289 last year but after being traded to the Cubs at the deadline, he batted .321 with a 1.002 OPS. I think some of his 58 doubles turn into homers at Great American Ball Park. Moustakas will probably get crapped on by fans for hitting .250 but if he hits 15 homers in a 60 game season and has an .845 OPS like last year, that's a big boost.
Four of the Reds' starters had ERAs under 4 last year. And I like the bullpen, which includes Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Rasiel Iglesias, Robert Stephenson, Strop and Lucas Sims.
I can't wait to see Lorenzen used in multiple ways, too. I think he'll get some time in the outfield and he might be the guy they use on second base to start extra innings.
Best chance at MVP - Suarez
As much as I love the signings of the new guys, the old guard is still the face of the this franchise. Suarez's smile and personality makes him a fan favorite. He could hit 20 homers in 60 games and if the Reds are winning the division as I predict, he'll be in the running for MVP.
Best chance at Cy Young - Castillo
Gray will be the opening day starter, but Castillo still has the best stuff to me. Castillo struck out 226 batters last year and he was 15-8 overall. The Reds realistically have three guys who could win a Cy Young and two others who both were under 4 in ERA last summer.
Need a big season from - Bauer
I could have gone a few different directions with this one. Castellanos and Akiyama certainly need big seasons this summer. Nick Senzel needs to stay healthy and play like the first-round pick he was. But if Bauer pitches like he did last year after coming over to Cincinnati, the Reds will not win the division. If he's more like 2018, they might run away with it. He's that important to this short season I think. I also think he could pitch every four days.
Cardinals
A few of my closest friends who love the Cardinals were upset at the lack of moves they made this summer. There aren't a lot of new faces but they did win the division last year so maybe there wasn't a lot of moves to make?
They are always in the mix and if they win the division again, it will be because the pitching and defense remained strong.
Jack Flaherty is back as the ace of the staff. But will the rest of the rotation be good enough? Those names include Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA last year) and Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19).
I also think Carlos Martinez returns to the rotation after moving to the bullpen last year. His ERA has been well under 4 the past 5 seasons. Just three years ago, he struck out 217 and had an ERA of 3.64 as a starter.
The bullpen can be good. But the expected closer, Giovanny Gallegos, is not even in the country yet. I think Ryan Helsey is the team's closer for most of the year.
This team will go as far as the bats take them. Can Paul Goldschmidt bounce back? And how good can guys like Tommy Edman, Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong be in supporting roles?
Best chance at MVP - Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt signed a big contact with STL a few years back but 2019 was the worst of his career as his .260 average and .821 OPS were the worst of his career. He has the ability to bounce back and be the MVP type player he once was. St. Louis needs him to be that guy this summer.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Flaherty
Flaherty is a guy who could actually win the Cy Young. The division has a lot of great starting pitchers. Flaherty struck out 231 dudes last year and his ERA was 2.75. Those are Cy Young numbers. If he stays on the course, he'll be in the mix.
Need a big season from - Edman
You could put Goldschmidt here, too, but because I want to give multiple names, I will go with Edman. He wasn't an everyday player all season last year but had an OPS of .850 and batted .304 in 92 games. He will steal bases, too. I think he plays more from the start this year, especially with the DH. If he can play as well as he did last year, the Cardinals could be back in position to take the Central.
Cubs
The Cubs, like the Cardinals, are projected to win 32.5 games. But unlike the Reds and Cardinals, I don't think the pitching is good enough. The bats could be better than both teams though.
Jon Lester is too old and it showed last year with his 4.46 ERA. He'll be out there every 5th day and he'll fight to the end but I just don't think he has much left.
They'll be without Jose Quintana for a bit after he suffered an injury. Kyle Hendricks is the opening day starter and should be the best pitcher of the bunch. He had the best ERA last year.
Yu Darvish was pretty good last year with 229 strikeouts and an ERA just under 4. He was shelled in an exhibition game against the White Sox tonight so that might not be too promising.
The lineup is potent and will be the reason the Cubs will the division if they do. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber all hit at least 24 homers last year.
With the addition of the DH, the Cubs will have some options to make sure the best guys are in the lineup every day.
Best chance at MVP - Rizzo
It might be Baez. But the old man still had a .924 OPS last year, which was best on the team. Rizzo also was better than Baez in average and RBIs but Baez had 38 doubles. I could see Bryant or Schwarber being in the mix, too, but I will go with Rizzo because he's the grizzly veteran who doesn't appear to be slowing down.
Best shot at Cy Young - Hendricks
He's the best of the bunch and I am not sure it's close. Darvish's strikeout numbers will be sexy, but Hendricks has that Greg Maddux vibe where he is effective without overpowering hitters. If he has an ERA close to what he had last year, then he'll be the top vote-getter on his team for the award.
Need a big season from - Craig Kimbrel
The Cubs' bullpen lost lead against the White Sox a few days ago and the bullpen was an issue last year. If Kimbrel has an ERA of 6.53 this summer, the Cubs will be looking for another closer. But if he can regroup and bounce back, the wins he helps the team get will go a long ways in the final standings.
Brewers
I looked at social media after I saw a baseball "expert" gave his Central predictions. Jim Bowden also had the Brewers fourth and fans of that team were not happy, saying everyone sleeps on this team.
Maybe they are right. The rotation doesn't have sexy names and there is talent in the lineup. But I don't think it's enough to be better than the other three teams.
Christian Yelich is fantastic. Keston Hiura was great as a rookie. And they added Avisail Garcia in the offseason, but Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain aren't getting any younger.
The rotation includes Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson. It's a good trio. They all three had ERAs under 4 so it might be better than the Cubs overall. Josh Hader also is one of the best relief pitchers in the game and could be used four or five times a week in a role outside of closer.
Best chance at MVP - Yelich
Yelich likely wins the MVP last year if he doesn't get hurt. He still batted .329 and had an OPS of 1.100. His OBP was .429, he hit 44 homers, stole 30 bases and had 97 RBIs. He could hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases in 60 games. If he bats .320 again, he'll be a favorite to win the award.
Best shot at Cy Young - Woodruff
I'm a big fan of Woodruff. I think he has a big year after going 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts last year. He's not too known yet but another season like last year and that will change.
Need a big season from - Huira
Yelich needs a running mate or a Robin. Huira hit .303 and had an OPS of .938 as a rookie last year. He'll be a starter from Day 1 this summer so if the numbers stay around last year, the Brewers will be in the mix for at least 30 wins.
Pirates
After last season's bean ball incidents, the Pirates have moved to the top of my least favorite list. They get so butt hurt about everything and hate having fun while playing baseball.
Josh Bell could be an MVP candidate after hitting .277 with 37 homers, 116 RBIs and an OPS of .936. The opening day starter is Joe Musgrove, who went 11-12 last year with an ERA of 4.44.
So the pitching staff has a lot of questions and outside of Bell, there's not a ton of known bats in the lineup.
Gregory Polanco played just 42 games last year and if he can bounce back and have a big year, it will help push the Pirates closer to 30 wins.
I hope Chris Archer gets shelled every game. But being an Iowan, I also hope Mitch Keller has a strong season as he likely moves to the rotation full time.
Sunday, July 19, 2020
MLB: NL East Predictions
National League East
I think the NL East and NL Central are the two hardest divisions to predict in MLB. I feel like it's safe to say that the Marlins and Pirates will be at the bottom of both divisions. But 1-4 in the Central is tough and 1-2 and 3-4 in the East are tough.
Best chance at MVP - Acuna Jr.
I was tempted to go Freeman after last year (38 homers, 121 RBIs and an .938 OPS) but that bout with COVID-19 could force him to be slow out of the gates. Acuna has a little bit to learn about show boating and whatnot but he's fun to watch. I think he only gets better from his 41 homers, 101 RBIs, 127 runs, 37 steals and .883 OPS that he had last year. On a 60-game scale of course. I think the .280 batting average might go down but the .883 OPS goes way up.
Best chance at Cy Young - Mike Soroka
Soroka is not your typical Cy Young candidate. He won't blow the ball by you at 96 miles per hour. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out. But he was 13-4 with an ERA of 2.68 last year. If he has a season similar to that this summer, he can be in the mix again.
Need a big season from - Ozuna
Some folks I know who root for the Cardinals were not too upset that he left town. He's a love him or hate him kind of guy I think. But he still had 29 homers and 89 RBIs last year as a main piece. In Atlanta, he's going to be in a supporting role and those numbers will work just fine. If he improves them a bit, and ups the OPS from .800 last year, the Braves will edge the Nationals in the final standings.
Nationals
If the season ended after 60 games last year, the Nationals wouldn't have been in the playoffs. I bet the Nationals are tired of hearing that. But if the World Series champions from last year do that again, it won't be around to defend its title.
Need a big season from - Eaton
Eaton has been one of those popular fantasy draft guys who always seems to go earlier than he should because of hype. Then an injury derails the season. Eaton needs to be better than last year when he hit .279 with 15 HRs, 49 RBIs and 103 runs. His OPS of .792 needs to get up in the mid-.800s, too.
Mets
I went with the Mets over the Phillies but it's not easy. Both teams have identical win projection totals in Vegas. I just like the Mets pitching staff better when it comes to depth and talent.
I think the NL East and NL Central are the two hardest divisions to predict in MLB. I feel like it's safe to say that the Marlins and Pirates will be at the bottom of both divisions. But 1-4 in the Central is tough and 1-2 and 3-4 in the East are tough.
I know the Braves and Nationals will be tops in the East. I just don't know what the order will be. The Nats are the defending champions but they lost Anthony Rendon in free agency. The Braves were close last year and added Cole Hamels to the rotation, Will Smith to the bullpen and Marcell Ozuna to the lineup to get over the hump.
The Mets added Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to their rotation, for better or for worse. The Phillies went out and spent again, adding Zack Wheeler to the rotation and Didi Gregorius to the lineup.
I like the Braves a lot. They will be relying on their young talent to carry the team for the most part. If the veterans can come through, I like them winning the East. But the Nationals might have the best rotation in baseball and Juan Soto is an MVP candidate.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Braves (34.5)
2. Nationals (33.5)
3. Mets (31.5)
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Braves (34.5)
2. Nationals (33.5)
3. Mets (31.5)
4. Phillies (31.5)
5. Marlins (24.5)
Braves
The rotation is underrated, the bullpen added a big piece and the lineup can score runs with anyone. It won't be easy for anyone in this division because they have to play the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jay as part of their crossover schedule, but the Braves should be the favorites to win the division.
5. Marlins (24.5)
Braves
The rotation is underrated, the bullpen added a big piece and the lineup can score runs with anyone. It won't be easy for anyone in this division because they have to play the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jay as part of their crossover schedule, but the Braves should be the favorites to win the division.
Adding Cole Hamels as your No. 4 starter isn't a bad way to go. He's getting older but he still had a 3.81 ERA last year for the Cubs.
They also added Will Smith to the bullpen, and (HOT TAKE ALERT) I think he will be the team's closer not too far into the season. He had 34 saves last year with the Giants and his ERA was 2.76. The incumbent closer, Mark Melancon, has experience but only saved 11 games last year and his ERA was 3.86.
What's not to like about the lineup? Freddie Freeman is back after surviving a tough battle with COVID-19, Ronald Acuna Jr. is one of the league's best players and Ozzie Albies is a young stud, too. If Marcell Ozuna can give them a little more than he gave the Cardinals last year, the Braves win this division
Best chance at MVP - Acuna Jr.
I was tempted to go Freeman after last year (38 homers, 121 RBIs and an .938 OPS) but that bout with COVID-19 could force him to be slow out of the gates. Acuna has a little bit to learn about show boating and whatnot but he's fun to watch. I think he only gets better from his 41 homers, 101 RBIs, 127 runs, 37 steals and .883 OPS that he had last year. On a 60-game scale of course. I think the .280 batting average might go down but the .883 OPS goes way up.
Best chance at Cy Young - Mike Soroka
Soroka is not your typical Cy Young candidate. He won't blow the ball by you at 96 miles per hour. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out. But he was 13-4 with an ERA of 2.68 last year. If he has a season similar to that this summer, he can be in the mix again.
Need a big season from - Ozuna
Some folks I know who root for the Cardinals were not too upset that he left town. He's a love him or hate him kind of guy I think. But he still had 29 homers and 89 RBIs last year as a main piece. In Atlanta, he's going to be in a supporting role and those numbers will work just fine. If he improves them a bit, and ups the OPS from .800 last year, the Braves will edge the Nationals in the final standings.
Nationals
If the season ended after 60 games last year, the Nationals wouldn't have been in the playoffs. I bet the Nationals are tired of hearing that. But if the World Series champions from last year do that again, it won't be around to defend its title.
The rotation led by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin is one of the best in baseball. Maybe the best. And having two options at closer with Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson in a short season is ideal, too.
Juan Soto is a stud. Trea Turner and Victor Robles provide a different type of offense with their ability to steal bases. If the supporting cast of Starlin Castro, Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick and Eric Thames can pull their weight, they could sneak past the Braves for the division title.
Also, keep an eye out for Carter Kieboom. It will be interesting to see how much he plays this summer and what he does with any kind of role he has.
Best chance at MVP - Soto
This one is easy. Soto's OPS last year was .969. He had 34 homers, 110 RBIs and scored 110 runs. He's likely an MVP candidate for the next 7 years.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Strasburg
I know this team has Scherzer. But I think it's Strasburg's time to be the ace of the staff. He had 251 strikeouts last year and was 18-6 with an ERA of 3.32. If he can lower the ERA, he'll be right up there with his teammate and others for the award.
Best chance at MVP - Soto
This one is easy. Soto's OPS last year was .969. He had 34 homers, 110 RBIs and scored 110 runs. He's likely an MVP candidate for the next 7 years.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Strasburg
I know this team has Scherzer. But I think it's Strasburg's time to be the ace of the staff. He had 251 strikeouts last year and was 18-6 with an ERA of 3.32. If he can lower the ERA, he'll be right up there with his teammate and others for the award.
The Nationals have three guys — Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin — who struck out at least 238 guys last year. And four guys whose ERA were 3,85 or better. That's insane.
Need a big season from - Eaton
Eaton has been one of those popular fantasy draft guys who always seems to go earlier than he should because of hype. Then an injury derails the season. Eaton needs to be better than last year when he hit .279 with 15 HRs, 49 RBIs and 103 runs. His OPS of .792 needs to get up in the mid-.800s, too.
Mets
I went with the Mets over the Phillies but it's not easy. Both teams have identical win projection totals in Vegas. I just like the Mets pitching staff better when it comes to depth and talent.
One thing that can often get overlooked is bullpen arms And in a short season, the Mets will throw out closer Edwin Diaz along with Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo and Brad Bach among others. There's a handful of guys who have closed before.
If the Mets can get bounce back type years from Porcello and Wacha they can most certainly finish third in the NL East.
Pete Alonso will likely take a step back from his awesome rookie season of 53 homers 120 RBIs and a .941 OPS. But he'll still be legit. Jeff McNeil was much better than most people think last year and Amed Rosario is a rising young shortstop.
Best chance at MVP - Alonso
As good as McNeil was (.318 average, .916 OPS and 23 homers), this is Alonso and Jacob deGrom's team moving forward. Alonso might hit 20 homers in 60 games. He might also strike out 120 times. It will be fun to see what he does in year two.
Best shot at Cy Young - deGrom
There's only one former Cy Young pitcher on this roster. And deGrom is one of the best in baseball. The Mets blew a lot of leads last year, which is why they strengthened the bullpen, which is why deGrom only won 11 games. But his ERA was 2.43 and he had 255 strikeouts.
Need a big season from - Marcus Stroman
Stroman came over in a trade last year and was just OK for the Mets. He finished the season 10-13 with a 3.22 ERA but was 4-2 in New York with an ERA of 3.73. If he has a strong 2020 summer, the Mets will be better for it. And could push them over the Phillies and closer to the top two teams in the division.
Phillies
The Phillies on paper look really good. Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler and Jake Arrieta is a good rotation. JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura appears to be a good lineup.
Best chance at MVP - Alonso
As good as McNeil was (.318 average, .916 OPS and 23 homers), this is Alonso and Jacob deGrom's team moving forward. Alonso might hit 20 homers in 60 games. He might also strike out 120 times. It will be fun to see what he does in year two.
Best shot at Cy Young - deGrom
There's only one former Cy Young pitcher on this roster. And deGrom is one of the best in baseball. The Mets blew a lot of leads last year, which is why they strengthened the bullpen, which is why deGrom only won 11 games. But his ERA was 2.43 and he had 255 strikeouts.
Need a big season from - Marcus Stroman
Stroman came over in a trade last year and was just OK for the Mets. He finished the season 10-13 with a 3.22 ERA but was 4-2 in New York with an ERA of 3.73. If he has a strong 2020 summer, the Mets will be better for it. And could push them over the Phillies and closer to the top two teams in the division.
Phillies
The Phillies on paper look really good. Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler and Jake Arrieta is a good rotation. JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura appears to be a good lineup.
But, to me, they are going to be relying on too many older guys and too many guys that get way more credit than they deserve.
Nola can be a legit Cy Young guy. And Wheeler has good stuff. But Nola, Wheeler and Arrieta were only a combined 31-23 last year and none of them had ERAs under 3.80.
Harper had a good year with 35 homers and 114 RBIs with an OPS of .882. But Hoskins batted .226, Gregorius' batting average was just .238 and his OPS was only .718 and McCutchen is just aging. Can you count on anyone besides Harper and Realmuto to be a difference maker in the lineup?
I am not sure. But if they can improve, then the Phillies will be better than the Mets.
Best chance at MVP - Harper
I have gone on record saying Harper is not as good as the money they are paying him. But he's the biggest name and he had an MVP kind of year last year. The OPS will have to go up and 35 homers for Harper is not enough when Alonso hit 53 and Eugenio Suarez of the Reds blasted 49.
Best shot at Cy Young - Nola
Nola was not as good in 2019 as he was in 2018 when his ERA was 2.37. The ERA jumped to 3.87 last year but he did have 229 strikeouts. Wheeler is due for a breakout kind of Cy Young jump but I still think Nola has the best chance to win it.
Need a big season from - Gregorius
The Phillies won the battle for free agent Gregorius this offseason. But he'll need to hit better than .238 to be worth his money. His OPS of .718 also is too low.
Marlins
The best player for the Marlins is Jonathan Villar. And he was better than you thought in 2019. Villar hit .274 with 24 homers, 73 RBIs, 111 runs and 40 steals for the Orioles last year. His OPS was .792, which isn't great but also isn't bad for a utility type guy.
Best chance at MVP - Harper
I have gone on record saying Harper is not as good as the money they are paying him. But he's the biggest name and he had an MVP kind of year last year. The OPS will have to go up and 35 homers for Harper is not enough when Alonso hit 53 and Eugenio Suarez of the Reds blasted 49.
Best shot at Cy Young - Nola
Nola was not as good in 2019 as he was in 2018 when his ERA was 2.37. The ERA jumped to 3.87 last year but he did have 229 strikeouts. Wheeler is due for a breakout kind of Cy Young jump but I still think Nola has the best chance to win it.
Need a big season from - Gregorius
The Phillies won the battle for free agent Gregorius this offseason. But he'll need to hit better than .238 to be worth his money. His OPS of .718 also is too low.
Marlins
The best player for the Marlins is Jonathan Villar. And he was better than you thought in 2019. Villar hit .274 with 24 homers, 73 RBIs, 111 runs and 40 steals for the Orioles last year. His OPS was .792, which isn't great but also isn't bad for a utility type guy.
Corey Dickerson is a veteran who hit .293 in 133 at-bats with Philadelphia and .315 in 127 at-bats for Pittsburgh. His OPS in Pittsburgh was .924 but he's on his fifth team since 2013.
Matt Joyce was added this offseason after playing in Atlanta last summer. Joyce batted .295 with the Braves but is playing on his fifth team in six years.
The ace of the staff is Sandy Alcantara, but he was just 6-14 last year. The ERA wasn't bad at 3.88 and he did have 151 strikeouts. I think Alcantara has talent though and is a candidate for a most improved type award.
Saturday, July 18, 2020
MLB: AL West Predictions
American League West
For the first time, I am going to disagree with the Vegas projections for the AL West. I think the Astros and Athletics are again at the top, but I am going to be pick the Rangers over the Angels for third.
I like the Rangers pitching staff much more than I like the Angels' arms. I know the Angels have Mike Trout (maybe) and Anthony Rendon, but no pitching to me usually means not much success. The Angels are counting on guys like Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy to be the aces and that's not good.
I pick the Angels as a trendy selection every year it seems. I am not making that same mistake this season.
The Astros are once again loaded. If they can find starting pitching after Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke then they can return to the World Series.
The Athletics will rely again on some young dudes. The best two pitchers and three of their four best position players have four years or less of MLB experience.
The Mariners won't be much of a factor, but there are a few guys I am anxious to watch this short summer season.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Astros (35.5)
2. Athletics (33.5)
3. Rangers (29.5)
4. Angels (31.5)
5. Mariners (24.5)
Astros
It's hard not to like the Astros again, even if they did lose Gerritt Cole to the Yankees. They still have veteran studs Verlander and Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. returns to the rotation this summer. If Jose Urquidy can take that next jump, and Dusty Baker allows him to, then the Astros probably don't miss a beat.
The everyday lineup with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick is as good as any lineup in baseball.
Even the bullpen, led by Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly, is better than average. The only thing that will slow down this team is injuries. And with as many purpose pitches to the body we probably see, that is entirely possible.
Best chance at MVP - Bregman
I could pick about four of the guys I mentioned above. Bregman, to me, is the best of the bunch. Last season was his best in the majors when he hit .296 with 41 homers, 112 RBIs, 37 doubles and a league-best 119 walks. My next choice would be Yordan Alvarez because he can could 20 homers in 60 games.
Best chance at Cy Young - Verlander
Greinke was fantastic too in 2019, but Verlander's numbers last year were out of this world good. Cole won the Cy Young, but you could have given it to Verlander and I wouldn't have complained. That might even motivate the aging veteran who went 21-6 with an ERA of 2.58 and 300 strikeouts last season. He has to fall off at some point, right? Maybe. But I won't bet against him until that time comes.
Need a big season from - Correa
Correa played 153 games in 2016. Since then, he hasn't played more than 110. With 60 games on the schedule, missing 20 games because of injury could be the difference between top seed and No. 3 seed in the AL. I wanted to say Tucker here because I think he breaks out, but Dusty Baker's track record of not playing young guys may not help his cause. He's ready though and needs at-bats.
Athletics
The franchise known for Moneyball will have to do that again to stay near the top of the division. The pitching staff has some talent, but the top two guys combined for 21 starts last year.
Frankie Montas will get the ball on Opening Day, but he made only 16 starts last year. He was impressive at 9-2 with an ERA of 2.63 and 103 strikeouts. Sean Manaea also made only five starts last season.
Mike Fiers needs another big seasons and Liam Hendriks in the bullpen is one of the best in the game.
Offensively, the group is again young. Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have only played in the league for two years and Ramon Laureano was a rookie last year. Marcus Semien is back as is the other Khris Davis.
Best chance at MVP - Semien
Olson and Chapman both hit 36 homers and had 91 RBIs last year, but Semien's season was better. He quietly hit 33 bombs with 92 RBIs, 43 doubles and 10 steals. If he hits close to the .285 h he hit last year, he is the best chance they have at the top honor.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Montas
As I said above, Montas was great in a limited number of starts last season. No one is really sure how effective starting pitchers will be early or how long they'll go. Montas, as the Opening Day starter, is the team's top candidate for the Cy Young.
Need a big season from - Mike Fiers
Fiers was one of the whistle blowers in the Astros scandal. He'll be throwing against a fantastic lineup in Houston so he'll have to be on his game. But if he can repeat his 3.90 ERA, the Athletics could be in the mix to overtake the Astros.
Rangers
The Rangers don't have a Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon, but they do have a much better pitching staff that features Corey Kluber, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. And the latter two had better than average seasons last year.
If Joey Gallo can cut down on strikeouts and find a way to stay healthy, the offense can be good with Danny Santana, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor and Willie Calhoun.
Best chance at MVP - Santana
Gallo might be the answer here. But I just don't trust him to be on the field enough. Santana has proven to at least be a consistent cog in the offense. He hit .283 last year, was a 20-20 guy and drove in 80 runs. I like him a lot.
Best shot at Cy Young - Lynn
Kluber is a former Cy Young, but he's coming off an injury that shelved him for most of last season. Lynn went 16-11 with an ERA of 3.67 and 246 strikeouts last year. If he's that good again, the Rangers will be better than the Angels.
Need a big season from - Kluber
The shiny new toy in the rotation is Kluber. He only made seven starts last year and had an ERA of 5.80. That was one year after going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He needs to get close to his former best if the Rangers want to take a step forward in the win column.
Angels
The Angels have big names in the lineup. But Albert Pujols and Justin Upton are on the downside of their careers.
Trout has said he may not even play this year as his wife is pregnant. That would be a huge blow to the team if he's not out there. Rendon had his best season in his contract year. How he plays after he got the money will be key for the Angels.
Upton only played 63 games last year and Pujols batted .244 with 23 homers and 93 RBIs. I like Tommy La Stella and a healthy Shohei Ohtani would be big.
I don't trust the pitching staff. If Julio Teheran is the ace, that's an issue. Nothing against him but a 10-11 record with an ERA of 3.81 doesn't scream ace.
And how many chances is Dylan Bundy going to get. Bundy was a big-time prospect in the Orioles organization but is 38-45 in his career with an ERA of 4.67.
Best chance at MVP - Rendon
If Trout plays, then he's the guy. I think he plays, but enough folks are saying he might not so who knows. Rendon hit .319 with 34 homers, 126 RBIs and 44 doubles last year. That's MVP stuff if he can duplicate that production.
Best shot at Cy Young - Ohtani
Ohtani will pitch every Sunday this summer if he can stay healthy. He won't win the Cy Young, but I can't pick Bundy or Teheran.
Need a big season from - Ohtani
It's Ohtani again. He'll need to pitch well on Sundays and play well when he's in the lineup, which I think will be about four or fives times a week as the DH. They need a big year from him if they want any shot at finishing in the top part of the division.
Mariners
The Mariners are picked to be slightly better than the Orioles and Tigers. But I am not totally sure why. The most experienced player is Kyle Seager and hit .239 with 23 homers and 63 RBIs last year.
They won't have anyone in the MVP or Cy Young mix. I think they need a big season from a guy like Shed Long though. The former Cincinnati Red is probably the everyday second baseman and he hit .263 with five homers in 152 at-bats last year.
The pitching staff is led by a guy who didn't pitch much in 2018 or 2019 in Taijun Walker and a relative unknown in Yusei Kikuchi.
Mallex Smith can run like the wind but he's no better than Billy Hamilton at this point in his career. Maybe he profiles as the team's best player but he'll have to hit better than .227.
For the first time, I am going to disagree with the Vegas projections for the AL West. I think the Astros and Athletics are again at the top, but I am going to be pick the Rangers over the Angels for third.
I like the Rangers pitching staff much more than I like the Angels' arms. I know the Angels have Mike Trout (maybe) and Anthony Rendon, but no pitching to me usually means not much success. The Angels are counting on guys like Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy to be the aces and that's not good.
I pick the Angels as a trendy selection every year it seems. I am not making that same mistake this season.
The Astros are once again loaded. If they can find starting pitching after Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke then they can return to the World Series.
The Athletics will rely again on some young dudes. The best two pitchers and three of their four best position players have four years or less of MLB experience.
The Mariners won't be much of a factor, but there are a few guys I am anxious to watch this short summer season.
Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections.
1. Astros (35.5)
2. Athletics (33.5)
3. Rangers (29.5)
4. Angels (31.5)
5. Mariners (24.5)
Astros
It's hard not to like the Astros again, even if they did lose Gerritt Cole to the Yankees. They still have veteran studs Verlander and Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. returns to the rotation this summer. If Jose Urquidy can take that next jump, and Dusty Baker allows him to, then the Astros probably don't miss a beat.
The everyday lineup with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick is as good as any lineup in baseball.
Even the bullpen, led by Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly, is better than average. The only thing that will slow down this team is injuries. And with as many purpose pitches to the body we probably see, that is entirely possible.
Best chance at MVP - Bregman
I could pick about four of the guys I mentioned above. Bregman, to me, is the best of the bunch. Last season was his best in the majors when he hit .296 with 41 homers, 112 RBIs, 37 doubles and a league-best 119 walks. My next choice would be Yordan Alvarez because he can could 20 homers in 60 games.
Best chance at Cy Young - Verlander
Greinke was fantastic too in 2019, but Verlander's numbers last year were out of this world good. Cole won the Cy Young, but you could have given it to Verlander and I wouldn't have complained. That might even motivate the aging veteran who went 21-6 with an ERA of 2.58 and 300 strikeouts last season. He has to fall off at some point, right? Maybe. But I won't bet against him until that time comes.
Need a big season from - Correa
Correa played 153 games in 2016. Since then, he hasn't played more than 110. With 60 games on the schedule, missing 20 games because of injury could be the difference between top seed and No. 3 seed in the AL. I wanted to say Tucker here because I think he breaks out, but Dusty Baker's track record of not playing young guys may not help his cause. He's ready though and needs at-bats.
Athletics
The franchise known for Moneyball will have to do that again to stay near the top of the division. The pitching staff has some talent, but the top two guys combined for 21 starts last year.
Frankie Montas will get the ball on Opening Day, but he made only 16 starts last year. He was impressive at 9-2 with an ERA of 2.63 and 103 strikeouts. Sean Manaea also made only five starts last season.
Mike Fiers needs another big seasons and Liam Hendriks in the bullpen is one of the best in the game.
Offensively, the group is again young. Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have only played in the league for two years and Ramon Laureano was a rookie last year. Marcus Semien is back as is the other Khris Davis.
Best chance at MVP - Semien
Olson and Chapman both hit 36 homers and had 91 RBIs last year, but Semien's season was better. He quietly hit 33 bombs with 92 RBIs, 43 doubles and 10 steals. If he hits close to the .285 h he hit last year, he is the best chance they have at the top honor.
Best shot at the Cy Young - Montas
As I said above, Montas was great in a limited number of starts last season. No one is really sure how effective starting pitchers will be early or how long they'll go. Montas, as the Opening Day starter, is the team's top candidate for the Cy Young.
Need a big season from - Mike Fiers
Fiers was one of the whistle blowers in the Astros scandal. He'll be throwing against a fantastic lineup in Houston so he'll have to be on his game. But if he can repeat his 3.90 ERA, the Athletics could be in the mix to overtake the Astros.
Rangers
The Rangers don't have a Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon, but they do have a much better pitching staff that features Corey Kluber, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. And the latter two had better than average seasons last year.
If Joey Gallo can cut down on strikeouts and find a way to stay healthy, the offense can be good with Danny Santana, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor and Willie Calhoun.
Best chance at MVP - Santana
Gallo might be the answer here. But I just don't trust him to be on the field enough. Santana has proven to at least be a consistent cog in the offense. He hit .283 last year, was a 20-20 guy and drove in 80 runs. I like him a lot.
Best shot at Cy Young - Lynn
Kluber is a former Cy Young, but he's coming off an injury that shelved him for most of last season. Lynn went 16-11 with an ERA of 3.67 and 246 strikeouts last year. If he's that good again, the Rangers will be better than the Angels.
Need a big season from - Kluber
The shiny new toy in the rotation is Kluber. He only made seven starts last year and had an ERA of 5.80. That was one year after going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He needs to get close to his former best if the Rangers want to take a step forward in the win column.
Angels
The Angels have big names in the lineup. But Albert Pujols and Justin Upton are on the downside of their careers.
Trout has said he may not even play this year as his wife is pregnant. That would be a huge blow to the team if he's not out there. Rendon had his best season in his contract year. How he plays after he got the money will be key for the Angels.
Upton only played 63 games last year and Pujols batted .244 with 23 homers and 93 RBIs. I like Tommy La Stella and a healthy Shohei Ohtani would be big.
I don't trust the pitching staff. If Julio Teheran is the ace, that's an issue. Nothing against him but a 10-11 record with an ERA of 3.81 doesn't scream ace.
And how many chances is Dylan Bundy going to get. Bundy was a big-time prospect in the Orioles organization but is 38-45 in his career with an ERA of 4.67.
Best chance at MVP - Rendon
If Trout plays, then he's the guy. I think he plays, but enough folks are saying he might not so who knows. Rendon hit .319 with 34 homers, 126 RBIs and 44 doubles last year. That's MVP stuff if he can duplicate that production.
Best shot at Cy Young - Ohtani
Ohtani will pitch every Sunday this summer if he can stay healthy. He won't win the Cy Young, but I can't pick Bundy or Teheran.
Need a big season from - Ohtani
It's Ohtani again. He'll need to pitch well on Sundays and play well when he's in the lineup, which I think will be about four or fives times a week as the DH. They need a big year from him if they want any shot at finishing in the top part of the division.
Mariners
The Mariners are picked to be slightly better than the Orioles and Tigers. But I am not totally sure why. The most experienced player is Kyle Seager and hit .239 with 23 homers and 63 RBIs last year.
They won't have anyone in the MVP or Cy Young mix. I think they need a big season from a guy like Shed Long though. The former Cincinnati Red is probably the everyday second baseman and he hit .263 with five homers in 152 at-bats last year.
The pitching staff is led by a guy who didn't pitch much in 2018 or 2019 in Taijun Walker and a relative unknown in Yusei Kikuchi.
Mallex Smith can run like the wind but he's no better than Billy Hamilton at this point in his career. Maybe he profiles as the team's best player but he'll have to hit better than .227.
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