No Aiyuk or Williams, no win for 49ers

 In a year when more than 25 players were placed on the Injured Reserve list, the 49ers will play their final game of the 2020 season without star rookie wideout Brandon Aiyuk and Pro Bowl tackle Trent Williams. 

Both players were injured in last week's win over the Arizona Cardinals. Neither will be available for the finale against arch rival Seattle. 

So for those keeping track at home, the 49ers will be without Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams on offense in the season finale. Plenty of other players remain out on both sides of the ball. 

With Seattle still potentially needing the win to stay in the first-round bye conversation, I expect this game won't be that close. And the Niners will finish 6-10 and draft in the top 15.  

Hopefully, disrespectful Kyle comes out and at least gives it a run for his money. CJ Beathard needs to just hand the ball off to Jeff Wilson and throw short passes to George Kittle. Kyle Shanahan can at least dial up some plays to get Kittle open in space. 

It's also a chance to try out for next year's team. Although I am not sure Kendrick Bourne or Richie James will be back. 

The defensive backfield will also play for next year's contract as Seattle has some very good weapons at WR. 

This year's free agency needs to start and end with Williams, who is a must sign this offseason. And if they can extend Fred Warner then do that, too. 

Draft Positioning after Sunday's Games

 If you are a 49ers fan looking to the NFL Draft at this point in the season, you are not alone. 

After the team's win over the Cardinals on Saturday, San Francisco is sitting at No. 14 in the NFL Draft. But if New England loses to Buffalo on Monday, I think that pushes them down to 15th due to the strength of schedule tiebreaker. 

So best-case scenario for 49ers fans would be for New England to win against the Bills. 

And if you want the best draft pick possible, fans should be rooting for the Vikings and Chargers to win in Week 17. That would push them up a few spots.

I am not sure if they can get high enough to nab one of the top four QBs in this next class but that would be ideal for the franchise. I think if a guy like Trey Lance is there, Shanahan pulls the trigger and lets Jimmy G and his contract go. 

Brian Peacock of Locked on 49ers said on his podcast last week that he expects Jimmy G to be in a 49ers uniform last week because he doesn't think the franchise will put someone worse than him on the field next season. 

Whether or not a rookie QB is better than Jimmy G is debatable. But with Jimmy G, Shanahan does have someone who he knows he can win with. And if they get the interior OL figured out, the running game should be able to lead the team back to the playoffs anyway. 

The Niners will try to win next week against Seattle. And another victory would give them some momentum heading into 2021. But it would also push them to outside the top 15 in the draft. 

So winning is losing and losing is winning in the final week of the season. Even if it's against the Seahawks. 

5 Observations about 49ers-Cardinals

 The San Francisco 49ers won a football game on Saturday. They defeated the Arizona Cardinals 20-12. Here are 5 observations about the victory. 

1. No one cares about draft position

As a long-time 49ers fan, I have openly said that if the team is out of the playoffs, the thing to do is lose games to help with draft positioning. 

While I still think that is the most beneficial thing to do for long-term success of the franchise, I appreciate that the franchise themselves values winning football games. 

Kyle Shanahan could have not played George Kittle, who was coming off a pretty significant injury. But Kittle is 100 percent healthy so Shanahan played him. The team is still trying to win games and that's refreshing. 

No, I don't think it's the best plan for us fans. It's going to be better for them in future years to have a top 10 draft pick, but Shanahan said earlier in the week that when he and John Lynch took over the franchise, they wanted to change the culture and tanking is not in the cards. 

I respect that mindset. I appreciate his honesty. And I enjoyed the watching my team win a football game and play a bit of a spoiler for playoff positioning. 

2. Give me Beathard over Mullens

Both C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens have started plenty of games under center for the 49ers in recent years. Before this season, and it's still the case after this year, is that the only QB to have winning success under Shanahan is Jimmy Garoppolo. 

Beathard started Saturday and won his second game with the franchise. He's now 2-9 as a starter in San Francisco. That's not good. But I firmly believe that you can and should get better as a player the more you play. 

Mullens simply has not gotten better. He's basically plateaued as a QB. We know what we are going to get. 

Beathard looked better Saturday than he ever did before as a starter. He wasn't spectacular as he threw for less than 200 yards. But he had three TD passes and turned the ball over just once. 

When the Niners don't turn the ball over and run the ball like they did against the Cardinals, they are tough to beat. And Beathard was simply solid. He made throws when he had to and didn't make huge mistakes. 

He made a few big throws to former college teammate George Kittle and all three TD passes were on target. And he checked down when it was the right time to do so. The 49ers have plenty of guys who can get yards after the catch and Beathard simply worked the ball to those players. 

Beathard had a few throws that stunk. But he was a lot more effective and a lot less turnover prone than Mullens. And he actually presents a threat to run, too.

3. Days are numbered for Coleman, James and others. 

The Niners have been hampered by injuries all season. They have had at least 28 guys on the IR at some point this season. That's the most in franchise history. 

Because guys like Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have been hurt, others have had a chance to show what they can do. 

Tevin Coleman was signed two years ago. I think this should be his last season as a 49ers RB as he can't stay healthy and he's not that effective when he is. 

Jeff Wilson was an undrafted free agent but looks clearly better than Coleman right now. I would keep Wilson over Coleman as a backup RB to Mostert moving forward. 

Richie James has had way too many drops and fumbles. He's a big play waiting to happen but there's too many bad in between the good for me. If it were my team, I would move forward with Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne as my WRs and move on from James and Trent Taylor. Hopefully Jalen Hurd can actually play next year but drafting another WR would be ideal. 

The 49ers have plenty of FAs looming. We will probably see the last of Richard Sherman, too. And what will they do with Trent Williams?

4. Kyler Murray kills the 49ers with his feet. 

This is a no brainer as Murray hurts a lot of teams with his feet. But Murray got yardage in the run game any time he wanted them. And it mostly came on third or fourth down. Not having Nick Bosa hurts but Murray has been great against the 49ers the past two seasons. 

Robert Saleh deserves a head coaching job and it's mostly not his fault as Murray is just an explosive player, but the Niners defense needs to figure out a better way to slow down mobile QBs. 

5. Warner-Greenlaw duo has bright future

Fred Warner showed again why he is a Pro Bowler and one of the best LBs in the NFL. He was great in coverage again as he nearly had a pick six and knocked the ball away from a Cardinal receiver on another play. 

Dre Greenlaw was a late-round draft pick a few years ago but he's been way better than that in his short time in the league. He was all over the field again against the Cardinals and was one of the reasons the Cardinals only had 120 rushing yards. 

Arizona ran 80 plays and scored just 12 points. Warner finished with 14 tackles and three passes defensed and Greenlaw added eight tackles and a tackle for loss. They just might be the best set of young LBs in the NFL. 

Give Fred Warner whatever he wants in FA. He's worth every penny. 

Trying something new

Hey guys.

It's been a while since my last blog post. Things were turned upside down at my day job as our newspaper again made some cuts that forced me into a one-person sports crew. So I haven't been this busy in several years. 

I also was trying to figure out where this blog should go. I could keep just typing about anything I want to talk about. 

But I think the best thing to do to try to grow it is to pick a focus point and stick with it for awhile. Maybe it will lead to something bigger. 

So, I have decided to go to what I know best and what I am most passionate about. And that's San Francisco 49ers football. 

My hope is to blog about games, offseason decisions, draft stuff and anything 49ers related. It will hopefully be fun and be something enough folks will be interested in. 

I listen to enough 49ers podcasts and watch enough YouTube pages geared around the 49ers that I should be able to provide enough material to keep the thing rolling. And when I learn something from someone else, I will be sure to attribute that to that person. 

Let's have some fun. And Let's Go Niners. 

The NL Cy Young Award goes to ...

I went down a rabbit hole tonight, breaking down the 2020 NL Cy Young candidates. 

In my opinion, there are 5 very strong candidates for the award. And they have all been great in their own ways. 

For the sake of this blog, I left all relief pitchers out of this. I don't think a closer or relief pitcher will win the award so I didn't even bother to look anyone up. Although I know there are some good ones. 

Trevor Bauer

Record: 5-4

1.73 ERA ... 73 innings ... 41 hits allowed ... 14 earned runs allowed ... 17 walks ... 100 strikeouts. 

0.79 WHIP ... 12.3 K/9 ... 2.87 FIP ... 277 ERA+ ... .159 BA against ... 2.8 WAR.

Yu Darvish

Record: 7-3

2.22 ERA ... 69 innings ... 56 hits allowed ... 17 earned runs allowed ... 13 walks ... 88 strikeouts. 

1.00 WHIP ... 11.5 K/9 ... 2.23 FIP ... 201 ERA+ ... .219 BA against ... 2.2 WAR.

Jacob deGrom

Record: 4-2

2.14 ERA ... 63 innings ... 42 hits allowed ... 15 earned runs allowed ... 16 walks ... 94 strikeouts.

0.92 WHIP ... 13.4 K/9 ... 1.99 FIP ... 198 ERA+ ... .184 BA against ... 2.5 WAR.

Dinelson Lamet 

Record: 3-1

2.07 ERA ... 65 innings ... 38 hits allowed ... 15 earned runs allowed ... 19 walks ... 89 strikeouts. 

0.87 WHIP ... 12.3 K/9 ... 2.51 FIP ... 207 ERA+ ... .166 BA against ... 2.3 WAR.

Corbin Burnes

Record: 4-1

2.11 ERA ... 59 innings ... 37 hits allowed ... 14 earned runs allowed ... 24 walks ... 88 strikeouts. 

1.02 WHIP ... 13.3 K/9 ... 1.79 FIP ... 258 ERA+ ... .174 BA against ... 2.2 WAR.

Analysis

As you can see, the list is filled with a variety of guys. Bauer and deGrom have both had Cy Young type seasons before with deGrom winning the award in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019. Darvish is a known commodity who had best his season in the bigs this year arguably. And Lamet and Burnes are just getting started in their careers. At least we hope so. 

I think Bauer has the edge with the 2020 award. His ERA is better than anyone's in the NL. He also leads the NL in strikeouts, WHIP and opponents' batting average. I have no idea how to compute the ERA+ but I know the higher the number the better and Bauer leads the league in that, too. 

I am told constantly by the analytics guys that WAR is the best stat to figure out who had the better season. And Bauer has the highest WAR of all these candidates. 

Bauer's FIP is not as great as the other guys. So maybe luck has been on his side a little bit. FIP is basically ERA without taking into account your team's defense and the luck that goes with hitting.

I really like what Burnes and Lamet did this year. If they were more known names, they might even finish higher in the voting. 

Burnes 13.3 K/9 is impressive and is second to only deGrom. His 258+ also is second to only Bauer. And his FIP is lower than anyone on this list. 

Lamet's opponents' batting average and ERA are second to only Bauer. His K/9 is equal to that of Bauer. And his WAR is equal to that of Darvish. 

Speaking of Darvish, as a Reds fan, I thought for sure that he would fade down the stretch of the season. And maybe in a 162 game season he would have. He actually did fade a bit in his final two starts, allowing more than 2 ER in both of them I believe. That's not bad. But it did move his numbers to below that of Bauer and deGrom. 

deGrom has the pedigree of winning the award so that will help him with some voters, especially those on the East Coast. His 13.4 K/9 leads the NL and his 2.5 WAR is second to only Bauer. He does have 10 fewer innings than Bauer so he might be the strikeouts leader if he had the same number of innings. 

You cannot go wrong with any of these guys. I am tired of hearing about the negatives that go with Bauer. 

His "baggage" is just something that his detractors and haters can't get past. 

In the span of a few days, I had arguments with other team's fanbases about how he shouldn't win the award because he's only 5-4 or because he's only done this because he's in a contract year or because he walks off the mound between innings like Connor McGregor sometimes. 

None of that matters with the Cy Young. Or at least it shouldn't. Lots of guys pitch or play well in contract years. That's not uncommon. But it's also not a lock. He is an arrogant and different guy. But he also gives props to his opponents when he gets "got."

The record comment is just dumb. The most ridiculous stat is baseball is the wins statistic that goes with pitchers. It's an arbitrary stat that has little to do with how you perform and more to do with how you pitch and how your team hits and plays defense. 

At one point recently, Bauer ranked second in the NL in lack of run support in the majors behind his teammate Luis Castillo. The Reds have been much better lately so that may not be the case right now. But the fact is, he goes out and pitches well almost every night but doesn't always get the win because the Reds lose 2-1 or 3-2 or 1-0. I think Bauer only gave up more than 3 runs in a start once this year. 

How is it his fault that he is 5-4? Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young in 2010 with a 13-12 record and deGrom was 11-8 last year and 10-9 in 2018. There is precedent for record not mattering when it comes to the Cy Young winner so I doubt a 5-4 record will hurt him that much. 

I am not sure who gets a Cy Young vote or even how many voters there are. Hopefully they look beyond players off the field and focus on what they've done on it. 

If I had a vote, this would be my order of finish in the 2020 NL Cy Young race. ...

1. Trevor Bauer

2. Jacob deGrom

3. Corbin Burnes

4. Yu Darvish

5. Dinelson Lamet

This very well could be the closest vote in the history of the award. And maybe it should be. I just think Bauer leads too many of the most important stats to be overlooked. It's his time. And he should be the first Cincinnati Reds Cy Young winner. 

 

 

Left for dead, the Reds are very much alive

 I definitely gave up on the Cincinnati Reds. I had seen this movie too many times. The offense was a combination of bad and unlucky. 

The offense is still not very good but they hit a lot of home runs. The starting pitching, which was already great, got even down the stretch with a few key starts from relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen and Luis Castillo is in another world right now. 

Another thing that changed that has the Reds back in contention for a playoff spot is the bullpen. 

The arms in the bullpen got much better. And they got rid of guys who just couldn't get it done. I have full confidence in Rasiel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone at this point. Those four guys will be vital to any playoff appearances or even playoff wins. 

The Reds starters can go 6-8 innings every time out. Trevor Bauer is closing in on the Reds' first-ever Cy Young award. 

The Milwaukee Brewers' loss to the St. Louis Cardinals dropped the idle Reds' magic number to clinch a playoff berth to 2. 

The Reds open a series with the Twins on Friday. They will need at least one win to make the postseason. But if they win and any two of the Brewers, Phillies or Giants lose then the Reds are in. The Giants actually have to lose both games of their doubleheader but the other two can lose once and the Reds are in as long as they take down the Twins in the opener. 

I would much rather be playing for positioning in the postseason after Friday then playing to get in the postseason after tomorrow.

The Reds will have Tyler Mahle, Castillo and possibly Bauer on short rest this weekend to lock up a playoff spot. 

Hopefully the offense shows up for three more games and they can take care of business. 

It's been a long time since the Reds were playing baseball in October. And now that they are this close, it would really suck if they fell short. 

The 49ers are still elite

It's been a while since I have blogged. Between my real writing job picking up steam and my daughter being taught remotely at home, I have been super busy lately. 

But since the NFL season is right around the corner, I feel like it's time to throw out some predictions and bold statements. 

The Reds have been super disappointing in MLB so it's time to move my attention to the NFL as my favorite team in all of pro sports played in the Super Bowl last year. 

Some folks are down on the Niners this year. I don't get it. And maybe it's not as bad as I have seen on social media. I have learned that comments on twitter are not always the consensus but more the loud minority. 

There will be a handful of teams that start the season with realistic Super Bowl expectations. 

The Chiefs. The Ravens. The Titans. The Steelers. The 49ers. The Saints. The Packers. The Vikings. The Cowboys. The Seahawks. The Buccaneers. Maybe the Eagles. 

Some of those teams are better than others but I would think all of them think they can win it all. 

But last year, no one predicted the 49ers would be the top seed in the NFC and even make the playoffs. So you just never know. The NFL has long stood for Not For Long for me. 

Windows aren't open for very long. It's all about the head coach, quarterback and defense IMO. If you don't have a top 10ish QB and a top 10ish defense, it's extremely hard to win a title. 

Kansas City has the No. 1 QB in the league. a Hall of Fame head coach and the defense was much better down the stretch and played well in the playoffs when it mattered. 

As a 49ers fan, I love Kyle Shanahan. But if he would have ran the ball just a few more times in the final 7 minutes of the Super Bowl, the Niners would be celebrating a sixth title. 

A 10-point lead with 7 minutes to play for one of the league's best running offenses and Shanahan called three straight running plays when the Chiefs were rallying. It's not like KC's defense was stopping the run. The Niners averaged five yards per carry in the game. 

I'm still bitter. I took me weeks to get over the loss. Nothing hurts me more as a sports fan than when the Niners lose a big game or the Super Bowl. Especially when they had a lead late in the game. 

But I don't think this team is just done either like some have suggested. Not sure why they aren't picked to win the NFC West. They bring back most of the roster that got them to the Super Bowl. And they add some really key pieces, too. 

Trent Williams at left tackle. Jerick McKinnon as a third-down back. Trent Taylor as a slot receiver. None of these guys played in the Super Bowl last year. All three are upgrades from what they had on the field last year. 

Joe Staley is a Hall of Fame left tackle. But Trent Williams is a better player at this point of his career. And the word is that Williams is now up to 315 pounds. He's one of the best tackles in the game when he's right mentally and I think he'll be amped up to play for his former coach and for one of the best teams in the league. 

Jimmy G is going to love having Williams protect his blindside. 

McKinnon is a guy who Shanahan signed early in his tenure. He hand picked the Jet to be a big part of his offense. And injuries has forced him to the sidelines the past two years. McKinnon is reportedly healthy now and if it stays that way, he will be a nightmare for teams to cover. 

Trent Taylor was Jimmy G's favorite target when he was a rookie. Not having his security blanket last year was a big deal. I think Taylor is severely underrated and will be one of the top receivers on this team this season. 

Throw in Brandon Aiyuk at receiver, a full season with Raheem Mostert as the main running back and a full second year in Shanahan's system for Jimmy G and the Niners' offense should be much better in 2020. 

Jimmy G will be just the third QB in Niners history to eclipse 4,000 yards and he could give Jeff Garcia's franchise record a run for the money.  

The defense should be fine, too. Especially if Dee Ford's knees hold out a little longer than they did last year. The pass rush will be awesome, I think collectively Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Kwon Alexander are one of the best linebacking duos in the game and the secondary was a big key to the defense last year and everyone is back. 

The Niners should finish no worse than 10-6. I think that's a low bar for this team but if there are injuries, 10-6 is a fair prediction. It's hard to go 13-3 every year so my final prediction is 11-5. But if they get back to the Super Bowl, I think they finish the deal this time. 

Predictions

AFC East - Bills

AFC West - Chiefs

AFC North - Ravens

AFC South - Titans

Wild Card - Steelers

Wild Card - Colts

Wild Card - Patriots

NFC East - Cowboys

NFC West - 49ers

NFC North - Packers

NFC South - Saints

Wild Card - Vikings

Wild Card - Seahawks

Wild Card - Buccaneers

Movie Reviews: Resurrecting the Champ and Blue Steel

 I got the chance to watch a few movies that I had not yet seen the past few nights. 

We dropped cable awhile back but we have about every streaming service there is. That's not entirely accurate but we have a lot. 

Tubi is one that I have discovered recently. It has a bunch of movies and TV shows. The movies are mostly ones I had never heard of before. There are a few in there that I know and love. But I had never heard Blue Steel before seeing it. I had stumbled across Resurrecting the Champ before but never watched it. 

Resurrecting The Champ hits home with me. It's about a struggling sports journalist who is looking for his big break. And he runs into a former boxer who most people who know him thought was dead. 

Josh Hartnett plays the role of the writer and he's basically undercover trying to learn more about the boxer, who is played by Samuel L. Jackson. 

Hartnett is also battling through a struggling marriage and doesn't have the best relationship with his young son. 

The ending of the movie is surprising and Hartnett's big story leads him to triumph, opportunities within his profession and a sad conclusion. 

Rotten Tomatoes gave the movie a 60 percent rating. I think it was a little better than that. I am a sports writer too so it was a great look into the field of study I went into. 

Blue Steel is an action crime drama starring Jamie Lee Curtis as a rookie cop who must engage in a cat-and-mouse game with a pistol-wielding psychopath who becomes obsessed with her.

In one of the first few scenes, Curtis finds herself in the middle of a robbery at a grocery store where she shoots the suspect and saves a bunch of hostages. One of the hostages though flees the scene with the gun of the suspect. 

I enjoyed the movie, but there are some holes that don't get filled. At least from what I can tell. The man who gets away, played by Ron Silver, suddenly becomes a ragic lunatic because he came into contact with a gun for the first time? 

And Silver's character talks to himself in a few scenes like he is possessed. But I never really understood what that was about. 

Curtis and Silver end up in a relationship as Silver becomes obsessed with her. He kills innocent people along the way and eventually works his way to people Megan Turner, played by Curtis, cares about. 

Rotten Tomatoes gave this one a rating of 75 percent. I would say that's about right, maybe a little lower on my end. Good movie. Not great. But I usually enjoy Jamie Lee Curtis movies. 

What a year 2020 has been

 The year 2020 didn't start half bad. I mean January and February weren't half bad. 

Then came March, April, May, June, July and August. And September and October don't appear to be any better. Maybe by November we can be back to somewhat normal. But don't bet on it. 

My lifetime has had a lot of bad years. The floods of 1993 were really bad. I remember a big ice storm when I was a kid. Other years weren't great either. 

But 2020 when you add up everything we lost because of COVID-19 and are now dealing with because of something I had never heard of, it's been a no fun year. 

Did anyone know what a derecho was before Monday? I surely didn't. It certainly did some damage. My town of Newton, Iowa, is still picking up the pieces and some of us still don't have any power. 

My family and I were fortunate. Our power came back on after about 11 hours. Our street had some damage but not anything that caused the destruction of power lines. I did see a few houses down the street that had trees land on them. 

I thought 11 hours was a long time. But my parents house went about five days without power. That sounds awful. I am glad they have it back and I hope others can get it back soon. Some other members of our family are still without it so that's not any fun. 

My work building was without power until just last night. Then our internet and servers kicked back on tonight. So my work should get back to normal soon. 

It will take some time still to get things straightened out. Alliant Energy and MidAmerican Energy is busting their butts to get everything back up and running. I bet a lot of those guys haven't slept much lately. 

The derecho just adds to a horrific year. A year that saw us lose March Madness, the Iowa State Fair, RAGBRAI, several concerts, the Iowa Cubs season and Hawkeye football. Other sports were called off. The NBA and NHL seasons were stopped in the middle and needed "bubble" setups to work. 

The MLB couldn't get its season going until mid-July. And it hasn't been perfect as the Marlins and Cardinals have had COVID-19 outbreaks. The Cardinals have played only 5 games and are still out of action. 

The NFL will be able to figure it out I think. The rosters are larger but the NFL is a cash cow that just seems to go on as planned no matter what gets in its way. 

My wife will go back to school here soon to start another year of teaching. But the district just announced today that damage done by the derecho will delay that to Sept. 8. Several buildings were damaged enough to push back the start date. 

Our 7-year-old is starting 2nd grade this fall. And I will be her teacher for at least the first 9 weeks. It's going to be a crazy school year for her. She hasn't seen her friends much the past several months. It's not how a young girl is supposed to live but she has taken like a champ. 

She wears a mask better than I do. She understands she has to wear one and hasn't complained at all. Me, the masks make me hot and my glasses fog over so it's not the best thing for me. 

I got new glasses today and the mask I like to use the most now doesn't fog up them so far. That's a good sign as I will begin covering volleyball matches soon. I will be wearing a mask indoors at events I work. Something about being inside a gym with a good number of people makes me nervous. 

Outside is a different story. I don't think it is that big of a deal because it's a lot easier to social distance.

We are all in challenging times. It's no one's fault. But it would be nice if we all handled this situation more like my 7-year-old and less like immature adults who don't like to follow rules because we are making them follow rules. 

We are in this together. We should be anyways.  

Garza returns to loaded Hawkeyes

The night before Luka Garza was scheduled to announce his future plans, Iowa point forward Connor McCaffery sent out a cryptic tweet.

"Hawk nation just respect his decision," McCaffery's tweet read.

That sentence led many Hawkeye fans to believe Garza was gone. Gone to the NBA. Or gone to play professionally overseas.

The tweet, though, turned out to be the ultimate troll job as Garza announced on social media around 12:15 p.m. Sunday that he was returning for his final season Iowa City.

"I love this place too much to leave it early," Garza said during a Zoom press conference on Sunday. "My heart is in Iowa City. It would have been hard to close the book without a last chapter."

McCaffery told the media on Sunday during a Zoom press conference that the tweet was indeed to have fun with the fans. And it came with Garza's approval and even a little pressure.

There is no doubt that Garza returning makes the Hawkeyes one of the favorites in the Big Ten Conference.

"The Big Ten goes through Iowa City," CBS Sports College Basketball Insider Jon Rothstein tweeted after the announcement.

Rothstein has Iowa in his ever-changing preseason top 5 as players from all over the country announce their plans to play or go. But Michigan State, Wisconsin and Illinois are all expected to be ranked in the top 10 as well.

It's easy to get behind this Hawkeye team. Garza is the leader after averaging 24 points and 10 rebounds per game last year but the Hawkeyes have seven players who could technically be labeled as "returning starters."

Joe Wieskamp averaged 14 points and six rebounds in 31 starts last year. C.J. Fredrick averaged 10 points per game and was one of the best 3-point shooters in the country, making 46 percent from long range.

McCaffery averaged four rebounds and four assists and had one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the nation, too.

Joe Toussaint even started 20 games as a freshman. And Patrick McCaffery is set to finally make his mark as he comes back from a redshirt season. He also gained some weight to help him get through a Big Ten Conference season.

And that's not counting Jordan Bohannon, who was limited to just 10 games last year, and Jack Nunge, who also had his season cut short because of an injury.

Bohannon could be the Big Ten's all-time leader in 3-point makes. And a lot of folks are forgetting about him because out of a sight out of mind.

The roster is constructed perfectly for a deep run. Dominant big man, plenty of outside threats and lots of experienced dudes who play with chips on their shoulders.

There aren't many guys on this team who will back down from a fight.

I would be shocked if this team didn't start the season in most preseason top 5s. Where they end up is still unknown but it'll be a disappointing season to at least not reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since Tom Davis was the coach.

"As teammates we were in support of Luka in whatever decision he made," Wieskamp said. "But we're obviously extremely excited to have him back. This team has a chance to do something really special this year."

This Hawkeye men's team will draw a lot of comparisons to the women's team that reached the Elite 8 a few years back. Garza is that's team Megan Gustafson and both teams feature experienced guards.

I would trade a football season this calendar year if it guaranteed we get a basketball season. That's not something I say every year, but for this one weird year, it applies.

Frustrating Reds

When I started this blog, I want another way to write, another way to vent and I wanted to write about things I can't write about in my day job.

This blog is all about venting.

The Cincinnati Reds are my favorite baseball team. They have finished in fourth or fifth place in each of the past six seasons after making the playoffs a handful of years in a row.

The club went out and made some moves to fix a bad offense from the previous season. They signed Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Aikyama to help with the lineup, added Wade Miley to an already good rotation and helped the bullpen by signing Pedro Strop.

And they are still 1-4. I know it's early. But there is no such thing as early in a 60-game season. 1-4 is like 3-15. It's not good. And frankly, I have no reason to believe things will get better.

The Reds lost two of three to what is supposed to be a bad Detroit Tigers team. And now have dropped two close games to the rival Cubs.

The Reds took two players from the Cubs roster after winning the season series last year and now suddenly can't beat them.

Baseball is frustrating. Being a fan of the Reds is frustrating. I have decided to not watch another game until they win. That means, I won't be watching Sonny Gray tomorrow. Or probably Luis Castillo on Thursday. Enough is enough. I am getting too old to be disappointed every night.

And Last Chance U just dropped on Netflix so that can hold down my time for now. I also want to binge a few other shows.

This team is maddening. Castillo, Gray and Bauer struck out 33 batters and allowed 3 ER in the first three games of the season and went 1-2. Then the Reds scored 7 runs in the first game against the Cubs and lost.

Tuesday night's game was brutal. Three hits and three runs through 8 innings. They ended up with 5 runs but it's all or nothing with this team. Either they homer and they don't score. No clutch hitting. No situational hitting. It's bad.

And when the pitching is brutal, see Wade Miley last night or the bullpen most nights, the hitting is at least good. When the pitching is great, the hitting can't be found.

I don't know if they can turn it around or not. There are still 55 games left. And other fans keep saying they are such and such games away from first place. Well, it doesn't feel positive to me.

I want to like David Bell. He seems like a great dude. And I can't fault him for looking at the numbers and being up to date with analytics.

It's the way baseball has headed. I understand Jesse Winker won't bat against lefties and I know Phil Ervin is not going to hit much against righties.

But isn't there any "I just have a feeling" left with baseball anymore. You have to know your guys. I don't think he has any kind of handle on the players. Because frankly, following the numbers 100 percent of the time is not working.

Time for a new game plan.

It would help to have Moustakas, Senzel and Tucker Barnhart in the lineup. It would also help if the Reds would just cut bait with Christian Colon and Freddy Galvis and sent Josh VanMeter to the alternate site.

If they are going to lose, I would much rather watch Jose Garcia and Tyler Stephenson every night. Stephenson just had a huge night in his debut and was nowhere to be found tonight. Bell picked Colon over Stephenson in a late-game situation with the game somewhat still in reach.

I don't get it. And it's frustrating. Now back to your regularly scheduled blog.

Reactions from MLB Opening Night

MLB is back. And I couldn't be happier.

Unfortunately, others are more concerned with things they can't control. The fake crowd noise is horrible, the cardboard cutouts of fans in the stands is annoying and why in the hell do we have to have more playoff teams?

We are in the middle of a pandemic and folks are grumpier than ever apparently.

Don't sweat the small stuff. It doesn't really matter what they do to your TV experience. Is it really that big of a deal? Isn't it better than nothing at all? Holy cow I can't remember the last time I cared about something so trivial.

I didn't notice the fake crowd noise at all. Made no difference to me. And you can tell the cardboard cutouts are fake, but I have a good feeling I would like that better than empty seats.

A few friends of mine were involved in a text thread today. We discussed Mookie Betts' massive deal and a few of the changes to the game.

I understand there will be complaints. One of my friends loves the expanded playoffs and is OK with a runner starting on 2nd base to begin extra innings if it's only for this year. Another friend hates the expanded playoffs.

I don't mind it. The NHL and NBA both have eight playoff teams in each conference. I don't see many people arguing about that every year.

More teams in the playoffs means more games for my TV and more games for me to watch. And that's a good thing.

In a summer where we are definitely going to see players miss time due to the virus, I would hate to see a playoff caliber team miss out on the postseason because it wasn't at full strength for a portion of the year. There's already a slim margin for error in a 60-game season. Not being able to put your best foot forward because of something that is affecting everyone would be a shame.

At least by adding a few playoff teams, a team like Dodgers or Nationals or Astros can overcome a few COVID-19 cases and still make the playoffs. Juan Soto has already tested positive. There will be more. I can guarantee it.

It also keeps fans interested longer. The White Sox and Padres have young rosters and are on the verge of potential postseason runs in the near future. These 3 extra spots gives their fans a reason to believe.

The Mets and Reds postseason chances moved up to higher than 60 percent in some places after they announced 3 playoff teams were being added.

I am basically on board for whatever MLB wants to do this summer. It's hard to get worked up over silly things when we have been without something we love for so long.

Bring on baseball. And bring on another run for the Big Red Machine.

MLB: NL West Predictions

National League West

The final preview and predictions blog comes in the National League West. The one division in baseball that likely won't be close.

The L.A. Dodgers are loaded and projected to win 38.5 games in Vegas. The next best projection is the Padres at 31.5 so the betting world has the Dodgers running away with this division. And with good reason. The Dodgers don't have a lot of holes.

The best pitchers and guys with the best shot win MVP are on that team outside of guys like Nolan Arenado in Colorado and Ketel Marte in Arizona.

The Dodgers have reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger and now $300 million man Mookie Betts as he and the Dodgers reached a massive 13-year deal to keep the superstar in Southern California for maybe the rest of his career.

Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are both good enough to win the Cy Young, too.

The Diamondbacks added Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte this offseason and they will go nicely with Ketel Marte, who was fantastic last year.

The Padres' young talent is unreal as their minor league system has been one of the best in baseball for awhile. Chris Paddack is a young ace that still needs to prove himself, Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to take a step after a strong rookie year that was limited by design to keep him healthy long term and the addition of Tommy Pham could be huge.

It's hard not to like the Rockies' trio of Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, but the pitching staff is not proven.

The Giants are running aging veterans Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to lead the pitching staff and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria are older veterans who had down years last year but are still the best players on the roster.

Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections. 

1. Dodgers (38.5)

2. Diamondbacks (30.5)

3. Padres (31.5)

4. Rockies (27.5)

5. Giants (25.5)

Dodgers

This team may win 40 games. I think their floor is about 38 and their ceiling is 45. That's how good the roster is.

Bellinger. Betts. Max Muncy. Justin Turner. Corey Seager. AJ. Pollock. Gavin Lux. That's a loaded lineup. And Buehler and Kershaw are joined by Julio Urias, Ross Stripling and Dustin May in the rotation.

The biggest question mark is not a negative. It's just something I don't know yet. Who is going to start after Buehler and Kershaw? How healthy is Alex Wood? Is Stripling more of a long reliever type and how much are they going to count on young stud May in the rotation?

Best chance at MVP - Bellinger

He was the MVP last year in the NL so it'd be foolish for me to pick anyone else. Betts has a shot after having an OPS of .915 last year and scoring an AL-high 135 runs. He also batted .295. But Bellinger hit .305 with 47 homers, 115 RBIs, 121 runs and 15 steals. His OPS was an incredible 1.035. If he does that again over a 60-game schedule, he'll again get first-place votes for the award. 

Best chance at Cy Young - Buehler

Kershaw is aging but was still great last year. His ERA was 3.03 but his FIP showed that he was bit lucky. I haven't used FIP with any of my previews yet but it's a valuable tool to see how good pitchers really were. Buehler's FIP of 3.01 was better than his 3.26 ERA and he struck out 215 in his second full season.  

Need a big season from - Urias

This may be a surprise, but I just don't think the lineup with have many issues. The Dodgers need a third starter to be able to push past their wall in the playoffs. If Urias is that guy, it will be massive for them. Urias pitched in 37 games last year but made only eight starts. His ERA was 2.49 though and he had 85 strikeouts. He's got talent and if they move him to a full-time starter he can push this team over the top to a World Series title.  

Diamondbacks

Picking the second place team in this division was tough. Outside of the Giants, the other three teams have a lot to like. 

I went with the D-Backs. Their trio of Ketel Marte, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar rivals the Rockies threesome but they have better pitching. And I am not sure the Padres are ready to make the jump everyone thinks they'll make.

Ketel Marte was an MVP type player last year. Getting Starling Marte away from a bad Pittsburgh team will help, too. Christian Walker had an .875 OPS as well.

The pitching staff isn't great but I trust guys like Bumgarner, Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray more than I trust the top guys on the other teams. 

Best chance at MVP - Ketel Marte

I owned Marte in fantasy leagues last year. A relatively unknown is now closer to a household name for baseball fans. He batted .329 with 32 homers, 92 RBIs, 97 runs and 10 steals. His OPS was .981, which was among the best in baseball.   

Best shot at the Cy Young - Gallen

Bumgarner has done it before but he is aging. Gallen only made 15 starts last year but his ERA was 2.81 between Miami and Arizona. He also had 96 strikeouts. I expect him to break out this summer and push the D-backs to the runner-up spot in the division  

Need a big season from - Starling Marte

They added Starling Marte for a reason. The dude hit .295 with 23 homers, 85 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 steals and had an OPS of .845. He will most likely bat near the top of the order with Ketel Marte and get on base a lot for guys like Escobar and Walker to bring home. 

Padres

I don't know why the Padres are so much more liked with the Vegas projections than the Rockies, but the young talent is there. There are a lot of unknowns heading in the season. If they all hit, then they will probably finish second in the division. 

The rotation features 24-year-old Chris Paddack, whose rookie season included an ERA of 3.33 and 153 strikeouts. I think Dinelson Lamet and Joey Lucchessi are capable but they haven't done it on the big stage yet.

Machado was one of the big free agent signings last offseason for San Diego but he hit only .256 and his OPS was .796 last year.

Unleashing Tatis Jr. for the entire 60 games will be fun to watch. And I love the addition of veteran Tommy Pham. Can other veterans like Wil Meyers, Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar do enough to make the Padres a contender?

Best chance at MVP - Tatis Jr. 


The Padres shut down Tatis after only 84 games last year. But he hit .317 and had an OPS of .969. He's a guy who can hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases this summer. If he gets close to last year, he has the name recognition to be in the mix for MVP.  

Best shot at Cy Young - Paddack

Paddack won't win the Cy Young but he gives the Padres their best shot. He was 9-7 last year and his ERA was good enough to make the cut. He'll start the season as the No. 1 starter and that also helps.  

Need a big season from - Machado

Maybe what we saw last year from Machado is his new normal. I didn't think he was worth the money the Padres gave him last offseason. He can prove me wrong by improving on last season. The Padres definitely need him to rebound.  

Rockies

Arenado, Story and Blackmon were all had OPS seasons of better than .900, but who else is there. I like Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson's versatility, but the pitching staff just wasn't that great last year. 

I know playing inside Coors has a lot to do with that. But German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray will have to be better if Colorado wants to finish above their 28-win Vegas projection. 

Best chance at MVP - Arenado

Arenado continues to be one of the best players in baseball. His OPS last year was .962 and he hit 41 homers with 118 RBIs, 102 runs and a .315 batting average. Story hit .294 and scored 111 runs and Blackmon batted . 314 with 112 runs so those guys could emerge as candidates, too. 
  
Best shot at Cy Young - Gray

Gray needs to be much better than 11-8 with an ERA of 3.84 and 150 strikeouts to be in the mix but he's probably got the best shot on paper coming in. 

Need a big season from - McMahon

Lineups in baseball need more than three guys. We know what Arenado, Story and Blackmon and can and likely will do. McMahon can play first, second or third base and will be a solid utility knife for the Rockies. If he has a better than average year, the Rockies could get to 30 wins. 

Giants

I don't expect much from the Giants this year. And if you go into a season with aging pitchers Cueto and Samardzija, they probably don't think much of their team either. 

As a Reds fan, I have a big admiration for what Cueto has done in his career. But he was limited to nine starts in 2018 and just four last year. If he's healthy, he can pitch as his career ERA is 3.35.

I will also root for might-be-closer Tony Watson as I covered the kid during his prep days in Iowa. 

Buster Posey is not playing this year due to COVID-19 concerns and veterans like Belt, Crawford and Longoria all hit under .250 last season. 

If the Giants get to 25 wins that would be a successful season. But they might be headed for about 20 wins. 

MLB: NL Central Predictions

National League Central

We come to the division that I pay most attention to. I am a Cincinnati Reds fan and I will be picking them to win this division. 

I am not sure why other than they made a bunch of winning moves this offseason. The Reds have finished either fourth or fifth the past five years after trading away big pieces to the last postseason run they had.

I think the NL Central is the most competitive division in baseball. There probably won't be a 40-win team in there. But the top four teams are all projected to win around 31 games this summer. If anyone gets to 35, I think that's enough to win it.

The Reds added Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama to the lineup, Wade Miley a rotation that was already pretty darn good and Pedro Strop to the bullpen. If this team hits, I think they win the division.

The Cardinals are a team I hate but respect. They are always in the mix no matter what the roster looks like. As I researched the teams in this division, I just don't know the Cardinals do it. The roster is not anything special. But they pitch and play defense. I am not sure where the offense will come from, but if they find some they might win 35 games.

The Cubs and Brewers also could both win the division if the ball bounces the right way. But the Cubs pitching staff is old and injury prone and the Brewers might be missing a few pieces on offense.

The Pirates aren't going to be the worst last-place team in baseball but I think they are headed for last. Josh Bell is fantastic, but the rotation has a lot of questions.

Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections. 

1. Reds (31.5)

2. Cardinals (32.5)

3. Cubs (32.5)

4. Brewers (31.5)

5. Pirates (25.5)

Reds

The Reds pitching staff of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Miley and Anthony DeSclafani was voted as the third best staff in baseball by MLB Network I think it was. That's pretty fair. If they get into the playoffs facing a combo of any of those guys will be tough to beat. 

Especially since they beefed up the lineup with Castellanos, Moustakas and Akiyama, who will all start most days and provide the offense with a much-needed boost.

Eugenio Suarez hit 49 bombs last year but also struck out a lot. His .930 OPS was impressive though and he'll be in the middle of the lineup with Castellanos and Moustakas.

Castellanos hit .289 last year but after being traded to the Cubs at the deadline, he batted .321 with a 1.002 OPS. I think some of his 58 doubles turn into homers at Great American Ball Park. Moustakas will probably get crapped on by fans for hitting .250 but if he hits 15 homers in a 60 game season and has an .845 OPS like last year, that's a big boost.

Four of the Reds' starters had ERAs under 4 last year. And I like the bullpen, which includes Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Rasiel Iglesias, Robert Stephenson, Strop and Lucas Sims.

I can't wait to see Lorenzen used in multiple ways, too. I think he'll get some time in the outfield and he might be the guy they use on second base to start extra innings.

Best chance at MVP - Suarez

As much as I love the signings of the new guys, the old guard is still the face of the this franchise. Suarez's smile and personality makes him a fan favorite. He could hit 20 homers in 60 games and if the Reds are winning the division as I predict, he'll be in the running for MVP. 

Best chance at Cy Young - Castillo

Gray will be the opening day starter, but Castillo still has the best stuff to me. Castillo struck out 226 batters last year and he was 15-8 overall. The Reds realistically have three guys who could win a Cy Young and two others who both were under 4 in ERA last summer. 

Need a big season from - Bauer 

I could have gone a few different directions with this one. Castellanos and Akiyama certainly need big seasons this summer. Nick Senzel needs to stay healthy and play like the first-round pick he was. But if Bauer pitches like he did last year after coming over to Cincinnati, the Reds will not win the division. If he's more like 2018, they might run away with it. He's that important to this short season I think. I also think he could pitch every four days. 

Cardinals

A few of my closest friends who love the Cardinals were upset at the lack of moves they made this summer. There aren't a lot of new faces but they did win the division last year so maybe there wasn't a lot of moves to make? 

They are always in the mix and if they win the division again, it will be because the pitching and defense remained strong.

Jack Flaherty is back as the ace of the staff. But will the rest of the rotation be good enough? Those names include Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA last year) and Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19).

I also think Carlos Martinez returns to the rotation after moving to the bullpen last year. His ERA has been well under 4 the past 5 seasons. Just three years ago, he struck out 217 and had an ERA of 3.64 as a starter.

The bullpen can be good. But the expected closer, Giovanny Gallegos, is not even in the country yet. I think Ryan Helsey is the team's closer for most of the year.

This team will go as far as the bats take them. Can Paul Goldschmidt bounce back? And how good can guys like Tommy Edman, Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong be in supporting roles? 

Best chance at MVP - Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt signed a big contact with STL a few years back but 2019 was the worst of his career as his .260 average and .821 OPS were the worst of his career. He has the ability to bounce back and be the MVP type player he once was. St. Louis needs him to be that guy this summer.   

Best shot at the Cy Young - Flaherty

Flaherty is a guy who could actually win the Cy Young. The division has a lot of great starting pitchers. Flaherty struck out 231 dudes last year and his ERA was 2.75. Those are Cy Young numbers. If he stays on the course, he'll be in the mix.   

Need a big season from - Edman

You could put Goldschmidt here, too, but because I want to give multiple names, I will go with Edman. He wasn't an everyday player all season last year but had an OPS of .850 and batted .304 in 92 games. He will steal bases, too. I think he plays more from the start this year, especially with the DH. If he can play as well as he did last year, the Cardinals could be back in position to take the Central. 

Cubs

The Cubs, like the Cardinals, are projected to win 32.5 games. But unlike the Reds and Cardinals, I don't think the pitching is good enough. The bats could be better than both teams though. 

Jon Lester is too old and it showed last year with his 4.46 ERA. He'll be out there every 5th day and he'll fight to the end but I just don't think he has much left. 

They'll be without Jose Quintana for a bit after he suffered an injury. Kyle Hendricks is the opening day starter and should be the best pitcher of the bunch. He had the best ERA last year. 

Yu Darvish was pretty good last year with 229 strikeouts and an ERA just under 4. He was shelled in an exhibition game against the White Sox tonight so that might not be too promising. 

The lineup is potent and will be the reason the Cubs will the division if they do. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber all hit at least 24 homers last year. 

With the addition of the DH, the Cubs will have some options to make sure the best guys are in the lineup every day.  

Best chance at MVP - Rizzo

It might be Baez. But the old man still had a .924 OPS last year, which was best on the team. Rizzo also was better than Baez in average and RBIs but Baez had 38 doubles. I could see Bryant or Schwarber being in the mix, too, but I will go with Rizzo because he's the grizzly veteran who doesn't appear to be slowing down. 

Best shot at Cy Young - Hendricks

He's the best of the bunch and I am not sure it's close. Darvish's strikeout numbers will be sexy, but Hendricks has that Greg Maddux vibe where he is effective without overpowering hitters. If he has an ERA close to what he had last year, then he'll be the top vote-getter on his team for the award. 

Need a big season from - Craig Kimbrel

The Cubs' bullpen lost lead against the White Sox a few days ago and the bullpen was an issue last year. If Kimbrel has an ERA of 6.53 this summer, the Cubs will be looking for another closer. But if he can regroup and bounce back, the wins he helps the team get will go a long ways in the final standings.  

Brewers

I looked at social media after I saw a baseball "expert" gave his Central predictions. Jim Bowden also had the Brewers fourth and fans of that team were not happy, saying everyone sleeps on this team. 

Maybe they are right. The rotation doesn't have sexy names and there is talent in the lineup. But I don't think it's enough to be better than the other three teams. 

Christian Yelich is fantastic. Keston Hiura was great as a rookie. And they added Avisail Garcia in the offseason, but Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain aren't getting any younger. 

The rotation includes Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson. It's a good trio. They all three had ERAs under 4 so it might be better than the Cubs overall. Josh Hader also is one of the best relief pitchers in the game and could be used four or five times a week in a role outside of closer. 

Best chance at MVP - Yelich

Yelich likely wins the MVP last year if he doesn't get hurt. He still batted .329 and had an OPS of 1.100. His OBP was .429, he hit 44 homers, stole 30 bases and had 97 RBIs. He could hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases in 60 games. If he bats .320 again, he'll be a favorite to win the award.   
Best shot at Cy Young - Woodruff

I'm a big fan of Woodruff. I think he has a big year after going 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts last year. He's not too known yet but another season like last year and that will change.  

Need a big season from - Huira

Yelich needs a running mate or a Robin. Huira hit .303 and had an OPS of .938 as a rookie last year. He'll be a starter from Day 1 this summer so if the numbers stay around last year, the Brewers will be in the mix for at least 30 wins. 

Pirates

After last season's bean ball incidents, the Pirates have moved to the top of my least favorite list. They get so butt hurt about everything and hate having fun while playing baseball. 

Josh Bell could be an MVP candidate after hitting .277 with 37 homers, 116 RBIs and an OPS of .936. The opening day starter is Joe Musgrove, who went 11-12 last year with an ERA of 4.44. 

So the pitching staff has a lot of questions and outside of Bell, there's not a ton of known bats in the lineup. 

Gregory Polanco played just 42 games last year and if he can bounce back and have a big year, it will help push the Pirates closer to 30 wins. 

I hope Chris Archer gets shelled every game. But being an Iowan, I also hope Mitch Keller has a strong season as he likely moves to the rotation full time. 

MLB: NL East Predictions

National League East

I think the NL East and NL Central are the two hardest divisions to predict in MLB. I feel like it's safe to say that the Marlins and Pirates will be at the bottom of both divisions. But 1-4 in the Central is tough and 1-2 and 3-4 in the East are tough. 

I know the Braves and Nationals will be tops in the East. I just don't know what the order will be. The Nats are the defending champions but they lost Anthony Rendon in free agency. The Braves were close last year and added Cole Hamels to the rotation, Will Smith to the bullpen and Marcell Ozuna to the lineup to get over the hump. 

The Mets added Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to their rotation, for better or for worse. The Phillies went out and spent again, adding Zack Wheeler to the rotation and Didi Gregorius to the lineup. 

I like the Braves a lot. They will be relying on their young talent to carry the team for the most part. If the veterans can come through, I like them winning the East. But the Nationals might have the best rotation in baseball and Juan Soto is an MVP candidate. 

Prediction of finish with the Vegas win total projections. 

1. Braves (34.5)

2. Nationals (33.5)

3. Mets (31.5)

4. Phillies (31.5)

5. Marlins (24.5)

Braves

The rotation is underrated, the bullpen added a big piece and the lineup can score runs with anyone. It won't be easy for anyone in this division because they have to play the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jay as part of their crossover schedule, but the Braves should be the favorites to win the division. 

Adding Cole Hamels as your No. 4 starter isn't a bad way to go. He's getting older but he still had a 3.81 ERA last year for the Cubs. 

They also added Will Smith to the bullpen, and (HOT TAKE ALERT) I think he will be the team's closer not too far into the season. He had 34 saves last year with the Giants and his ERA was 2.76. The incumbent closer, Mark Melancon, has experience but only saved 11 games last year and his ERA was 3.86. 

What's not to like about the lineup? Freddie Freeman is back after surviving a tough battle with COVID-19, Ronald Acuna Jr. is one of the league's best players and Ozzie Albies is a young stud, too. If Marcell Ozuna can give them a little more than he gave the Cardinals last year, the Braves win this division

Best chance at MVP - Acuna Jr.

I was tempted to go Freeman after last year (38 homers, 121 RBIs and an .938 OPS) but that bout with COVID-19 could force him to be slow out of the gates. Acuna has a little bit to learn about show boating and whatnot but he's fun to watch. I think he only gets better from his 41 homers, 101 RBIs, 127 runs, 37 steals and .883 OPS that he had last year. On a 60-game scale of course. I think the .280 batting average might go down but the .883 OPS goes way up. 

Best chance at Cy Young - Mike Soroka

Soroka is not your typical Cy Young candidate. He won't blow the ball by you at 96 miles per hour. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out. But he was 13-4 with an ERA of 2.68 last year. If he has a season similar to that this summer, he can be in the mix again.  

Need a big season from - Ozuna

Some folks I know who root for the Cardinals were not too upset that he left town. He's a love him or hate him kind of guy I think. But he still had 29 homers and 89 RBIs last year as a main piece. In Atlanta, he's going to be in a supporting role and those numbers will work just fine. If he improves them a bit, and ups the OPS from .800 last year, the Braves will edge the Nationals in the final standings. 

Nationals

If the season ended after 60 games last year, the Nationals wouldn't have been in the playoffs. I bet the Nationals are tired of hearing that. But if the World Series champions from last year do that again, it won't be around to defend its title. 

The rotation led by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin is one of the best in baseball. Maybe the best. And having two options at closer with Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson in a short season is ideal, too. 

Juan Soto is a stud. Trea Turner and Victor Robles provide a different type of offense with their ability to steal bases. If the supporting cast of Starlin Castro, Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick and Eric Thames can pull their weight, they could sneak past the Braves for the division title. 

Also, keep an eye out for Carter Kieboom. It will be interesting to see how much he plays this summer and what he does with any kind of role he has. 

Best chance at MVP - Soto

This one is easy. Soto's OPS last year was .969. He had 34 homers, 110 RBIs and scored 110 runs. He's likely an MVP candidate for the next 7 years.   

Best shot at the Cy Young - Strasburg

I know this team has Scherzer. But I think it's Strasburg's time to be the ace of the staff. He had 251 strikeouts last year and was 18-6 with an ERA of 3.32. If he can lower the ERA, he'll be right up there with his teammate and others for the award. 

The Nationals have three guys — Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin — who struck out at least 238 guys last year. And four guys whose ERA were 3,85 or better. That's insane.   

Need a big season from - Eaton

Eaton has been one of those popular fantasy draft guys who always seems to go earlier than he should because of hype. Then an injury derails the season. Eaton needs to be better than last year when he hit .279 with 15 HRs, 49 RBIs and 103 runs. His OPS of .792 needs to get up in the mid-.800s, too.   

Mets

I went with the Mets over the Phillies but it's not easy. Both teams have identical win projection totals in Vegas. I just like the Mets pitching staff better when it comes to depth and talent. 

One thing that can often get overlooked is bullpen arms And in a short season, the Mets will throw out closer Edwin Diaz along with Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo and Brad Bach among others. There's a handful of guys who have closed before. 

If the Mets can get bounce back type years from Porcello and Wacha they can most certainly finish third in the NL East. 

Pete Alonso will likely take a step back from his awesome rookie season of 53 homers 120 RBIs and a .941 OPS. But he'll still be legit. Jeff McNeil was much better than most people think last year and Amed Rosario is a rising young shortstop. 

Best chance at MVP - Alonso

As good as McNeil was (.318 average, .916 OPS and 23 homers), this is Alonso and Jacob deGrom's team moving forward. Alonso might hit 20 homers in 60 games. He might also strike out 120 times. It will be fun to see what he does in year two. 

Best shot at Cy Young - deGrom

There's only one former Cy Young pitcher on this roster. And deGrom is one of the best in baseball. The Mets blew a lot of leads last year, which is why they strengthened the bullpen, which is why deGrom only won 11 games. But his ERA was 2.43 and he had 255 strikeouts. 

Need a big season from - Marcus Stroman

Stroman came over in a trade last year and was just OK for the Mets. He finished the season 10-13 with a 3.22 ERA but was 4-2 in New York with an ERA of 3.73. If he has a strong 2020 summer, the Mets will be better for it. And could push them over the Phillies and closer to the top two teams in the division. 

Phillies

The Phillies on paper look really good. Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler and Jake Arrieta is a good rotation. JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura appears to be a good lineup. 

But, to me, they are going to be relying on too many older guys and too many guys that get way more credit than they deserve. 

Nola can be a legit Cy Young guy. And Wheeler has good stuff. But Nola, Wheeler and Arrieta were only a combined 31-23 last year and none of them had ERAs under 3.80. 

Harper had a good year with 35 homers and 114 RBIs with an OPS of .882. But Hoskins batted .226, Gregorius' batting average was just .238 and his OPS was only .718 and McCutchen is just aging. Can you count on anyone besides Harper and Realmuto to be a difference maker in the lineup?

I am not sure. But if they can improve, then the Phillies will be better than the Mets.  

Best chance at MVP - Harper

I have gone on record saying Harper is not as good as the money they are paying him. But he's the biggest name and he had an MVP kind of year last year. The OPS will have to go up and 35 homers for Harper is not enough when Alonso hit 53 and Eugenio Suarez of the Reds blasted 49.   

Best shot at Cy Young - Nola

Nola was not as good in 2019 as he was in 2018 when his ERA was 2.37. The ERA jumped to 3.87 last year but he did have 229 strikeouts. Wheeler is due for a breakout kind of Cy Young jump but I still think Nola has the best chance to win it.    

Need a big season from - Gregorius

The Phillies won the battle for free agent Gregorius this offseason. But he'll need to hit better than .238 to be worth his money. His OPS of .718 also is too low. 

Marlins

The best player for the Marlins is Jonathan Villar. And he was better than you thought in 2019. Villar hit .274 with 24 homers, 73 RBIs, 111 runs and 40 steals for the Orioles last year. His OPS was .792, which isn't great but also isn't bad for a utility type guy.  

Corey Dickerson is a veteran who hit .293 in 133 at-bats with Philadelphia and .315 in 127 at-bats for Pittsburgh. His OPS in Pittsburgh was .924 but he's on his fifth team since 2013. 

Matt Joyce was added this offseason after playing in Atlanta last summer. Joyce batted .295 with the Braves but is playing on his fifth team in six years. 

The ace of the staff is Sandy Alcantara, but he was just 6-14 last year. The ERA wasn't bad at 3.88 and he did have 151 strikeouts. I think Alcantara has talent though and is a candidate for a most improved type award.