I went down a rabbit hole tonight, breaking down the 2020 NL Cy Young candidates.
In my opinion, there are 5 very strong candidates for the award. And they have all been great in their own ways.
For the sake of this blog, I left all relief pitchers out of this. I don't think a closer or relief pitcher will win the award so I didn't even bother to look anyone up. Although I know there are some good ones.
Trevor Bauer
Record: 5-4
1.73 ERA ... 73 innings ... 41 hits allowed ... 14 earned runs allowed ... 17 walks ... 100 strikeouts.
0.79 WHIP ... 12.3 K/9 ... 2.87 FIP ... 277 ERA+ ... .159 BA against ... 2.8 WAR.
Yu Darvish
Record: 7-3
2.22 ERA ... 69 innings ... 56 hits allowed ... 17 earned runs allowed ... 13 walks ... 88 strikeouts.
1.00 WHIP ... 11.5 K/9 ... 2.23 FIP ... 201 ERA+ ... .219 BA against ... 2.2 WAR.
Jacob deGrom
Record: 4-2
2.14 ERA ... 63 innings ... 42 hits allowed ... 15 earned runs allowed ... 16 walks ... 94 strikeouts.
0.92 WHIP ... 13.4 K/9 ... 1.99 FIP ... 198 ERA+ ... .184 BA against ... 2.5 WAR.
Dinelson Lamet
Record: 3-1
2.07 ERA ... 65 innings ... 38 hits allowed ... 15 earned runs allowed ... 19 walks ... 89 strikeouts.
0.87 WHIP ... 12.3 K/9 ... 2.51 FIP ... 207 ERA+ ... .166 BA against ... 2.3 WAR.
Corbin Burnes
Record: 4-1
2.11 ERA ... 59 innings ... 37 hits allowed ... 14 earned runs allowed ... 24 walks ... 88 strikeouts.
1.02 WHIP ... 13.3 K/9 ... 1.79 FIP ... 258 ERA+ ... .174 BA against ... 2.2 WAR.
Analysis
As you can see, the list is filled with a variety of guys. Bauer and deGrom have both had Cy Young type seasons before with deGrom winning the award in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019. Darvish is a known commodity who had best his season in the bigs this year arguably. And Lamet and Burnes are just getting started in their careers. At least we hope so.
I think Bauer has the edge with the 2020 award. His ERA is better than anyone's in the NL. He also leads the NL in strikeouts, WHIP and opponents' batting average. I have no idea how to compute the ERA+ but I know the higher the number the better and Bauer leads the league in that, too.
I am told constantly by the analytics guys that WAR is the best stat to figure out who had the better season. And Bauer has the highest WAR of all these candidates.
Bauer's FIP is not as great as the other guys. So maybe luck has been on his side a little bit. FIP is basically ERA without taking into account your team's defense and the luck that goes with hitting.
I really like what Burnes and Lamet did this year. If they were more known names, they might even finish higher in the voting.
Burnes 13.3 K/9 is impressive and is second to only deGrom. His 258+ also is second to only Bauer. And his FIP is lower than anyone on this list.
Lamet's opponents' batting average and ERA are second to only Bauer. His K/9 is equal to that of Bauer. And his WAR is equal to that of Darvish.
Speaking of Darvish, as a Reds fan, I thought for sure that he would fade down the stretch of the season. And maybe in a 162 game season he would have. He actually did fade a bit in his final two starts, allowing more than 2 ER in both of them I believe. That's not bad. But it did move his numbers to below that of Bauer and deGrom.
deGrom has the pedigree of winning the award so that will help him with some voters, especially those on the East Coast. His 13.4 K/9 leads the NL and his 2.5 WAR is second to only Bauer. He does have 10 fewer innings than Bauer so he might be the strikeouts leader if he had the same number of innings.
You cannot go wrong with any of these guys. I am tired of hearing about the negatives that go with Bauer.
His "baggage" is just something that his detractors and haters can't get past.
In the span of a few days, I had arguments with other team's fanbases about how he shouldn't win the award because he's only 5-4 or because he's only done this because he's in a contract year or because he walks off the mound between innings like Connor McGregor sometimes.
None of that matters with the Cy Young. Or at least it shouldn't. Lots of guys pitch or play well in contract years. That's not uncommon. But it's also not a lock. He is an arrogant and different guy. But he also gives props to his opponents when he gets "got."
The record comment is just dumb. The most ridiculous stat is baseball is the wins statistic that goes with pitchers. It's an arbitrary stat that has little to do with how you perform and more to do with how you pitch and how your team hits and plays defense.
At one point recently, Bauer ranked second in the NL in lack of run support in the majors behind his teammate Luis Castillo. The Reds have been much better lately so that may not be the case right now. But the fact is, he goes out and pitches well almost every night but doesn't always get the win because the Reds lose 2-1 or 3-2 or 1-0. I think Bauer only gave up more than 3 runs in a start once this year.
How is it his fault that he is 5-4? Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young in 2010 with a 13-12 record and deGrom was 11-8 last year and 10-9 in 2018. There is precedent for record not mattering when it comes to the Cy Young winner so I doubt a 5-4 record will hurt him that much.
I am not sure who gets a Cy Young vote or even how many voters there are. Hopefully they look beyond players off the field and focus on what they've done on it.
If I had a vote, this would be my order of finish in the 2020 NL Cy Young race. ...
1. Trevor Bauer
2. Jacob deGrom
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Yu Darvish
5. Dinelson Lamet
This very well could be the closest vote in the history of the award. And maybe it should be. I just think Bauer leads too many of the most important stats to be overlooked. It's his time. And he should be the first Cincinnati Reds Cy Young winner.
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