My NFL Mock Draft

When I lived in Texas from 2004 to 2006, a buddy and I had a friendly competition with NFL mock drafts.

We tried to predict the first round of each NFL draft and compared our picks. The one who got the most right won a friendly wager. Nothing was on the line except pride, but it was fun.

I am going to attempt to do that again. I don't have any inside knowledge. I don't talk to GMs. But I listen to a lot of podcasts and read a lot of stuff on the internet. That makes me an expert, right?

I will likely crash and burn on this because I haven't done it for a long time. But here we go.

There will be trades. Those are hard to predict. My mock draft will have a player's name by each team, but I will mention who I think could move up or down, too.

1. Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB, LSU.

This one is set in stone. Book it. Mark it in pen. Done deal. Bengals get their franchise QB and they have weapons to show off when he gets there.

2. Redskins - Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State.

This is another done deal. Like the 49ers last year, the Redskins take advantage of a team ahead of them needing a franchise QB. Washington already has a stout DL but this makes them even more dangerous against Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz six times a year. Young is the best player in the draft, and it's not really that close.

3. Lions - Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State.

The Lions got rid of Darius Slay in the offseason. Okudah is the replacement. And probably an upgrade because of age and contract status.

4. Giants - Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson.

To me, the draft starts at No. 4. The Lions could go Simmons at 3. That would mean the first OL comes off the board here. And Dave Gettleman might still go OL since he likes to make those kind of picks. But Simmons is so good and versatile it will be hard for the Giants to pass on him.

5. Dolphins - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.

I would pick Tua here. But I have read and heard so much about how the Dolphins like Herbert better that it's probably true. The Dolphins, with three first-round picks, likely take one of the two QBs here.

6. Chargers - Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama.

Here is where Tua comes off the board. He's Philip Rivers' replacement in Los Angeles and gets to wear those sweet new uniforms.

7. Panthers - Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn.

The Panthers will go defense in this spot. Or trade out of the pick. I could see either happening. I like CJ Henderson better, but I think they build the defense from the inside out. That's why Brown is the pick here.

8. Cardinals - Jedrick Wills, OL, Alabama.

The first offensive lineman finally comes off the board and it starts a run. This will either be Wills or Tristan Wirfs. I thought for a while that Wills would be gone before now and that Wirfs was the pick. I think that could still happen but in this mock I have Wills here.

9. Jaguars - CJ Henderson, CB, Florida.

The Jags shipped out Jalen Ramsey during the season. They hope Henderson can be his replacement. I love Okudah, but some have Henderson as CB1. Most notably, former NFL cornerback Eric Crocker. So this is great value at 9.

10. Browns - Tristan Wirfs, OL, Iowa.

The Browns have pieces in place to make a jump next season. Many thought that jump would come this past year. They won't give up on Baker Mayfield yet. The next best choice is to find a way to protect him better.

11. Jets - Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama.

The Jets could go WR or OL here. They probably go with Mekhi Becton or Andrew Thomas since I have them taking Jeudy. Jeudy is WR1 or WR2 in this draft. And the Jets need to get Sam Darnold another weapon.

12. Raiders - Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama.

This will be either Ruggs or Ceedee Lamb. I like Lamb better, but I think the Raiders want speed as they try to outscore the Chiefs in the division.

13. 49ers - Ceedee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma.

The Super Bowl loser is in this spot because of the DeForest Buckner trade with the Colts. San Francisco doesn't have a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick so trading out of this spot makes the most sense. I think it's possible they try to trade back at 13 and 31. If they make this pick, and Lamb is the on the board, he's the guy. But they'd gladly put Ruggs in Kyle Shanahan's offense, too.

14. Buccaneers - Mekhi Becton, OL, Louisville.

Tampa Bay made a splash today by acquiring previously retired TE Rob Gronkowski in a trade. The offense now has Tom Brady, Ronald Jones, Gronk, OJ Howard, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The loaded skill position group gets an anchor on the offensive line in this scenario. I think this could be another trade spot though, too.

15. Broncos - Andrew Thomas, OL, Georgia.

Denver has been in love with Ruggs for a while. It likely tries to move ahead of San Francisco to get him or they just move into SF's spot. If they make the pick, I think Thomas is the guy.

16. Falcons - Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina.

Atlanta is another candidate to move up in the draft. But they need to shore up the defense in a division with Drew Brees and the Saints, Christian McCaffery and the Panthers and Brady and the Bucs.

17. Cowboys - K'Lavon Chaisson, DL, LSU.

The Cowboys would prefer Kinlaw. And if he's there, I think they take him. But Kinlaw is better so he goes first and Dallas gets Chaisson for its defensive line.

18. Dolphins - Josh Jones, OL, Houston.

Miami drafted a QB with its first pick. Now they get an OL to protect him. They'll continue to load up the offense with another pick later. But, the Dolphins could go really big and package one or both of their final two first-round picks to move up.

19. Raiders - Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma.

Jon Gruden and Mike Mayok have built their team around productive college players who were team leaders. Murray fits that bill to a T. They went offense with their first pick. They take Murray here to shore up the defense and fill in gaps left behind by trading away Khalil Mack.

20. Jaguars - Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State.

There are picks from here on out that I just have no clue. This is one of them. Gross-Matos will get taken by someone in the first round. I think the Jags need an upgrade in their pass rushing unit.

21. Eagles - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU.

If San Francisco can trade back at 13, I think Jefferson can be a target guy for them. But the Eagles love him, too. And they are taking a WR here. They'd go Ruggs if he was available, too.

22. Vikings - A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson.

The Vikings draft at 22 and 25. One will be a cornerback and the other will be a WR. In a draft that's deep at WR I think they address corner here. It could be Terrell or Jaylon Johnson. They won't take Trevon Diggs after shipping his brother to Buffalo this offseason.

23. Patriots - A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa.

Bill Belichick's connection to Kirk Ferentz and Iowa helps here. The Pats could go off script and take a TE but no one is really worthy in this spot. A lot of experts have Epenesa slipping in the draft, but Belichick outsmarts them again with Epenesa, who was very productive in college but had a subpar combine.

24. Saints - Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.

The Saints lost Teddy Bridgewater in free agency. Drew Brees is not going to play forever. I think they try to draft his replacement and let him sit behind Brees for at least a year.

25. Vikings - Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson.

I have my favorite WRs. Others have a different order. I like Higgins and I think he goes first round. The Vikings traded Stefan Diggs to Buffalo and need to nab his replacement here.

26. Dolphins - D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia.

The Dolphins' third pick in the first round is the first RB off the board. Herbert needs a dump-off guy and Swift is RB1 and one of the top pass catching backs in the draft. With Herbert, Josh Jones and Swift, the offense in Miami should go.

27. Seahawks - Austin Jackson, OL, USC.

I thought Gross-Matos and Epenesa made sense here for a long time. But since both guys are gone, the Seahawks choose to upgrade a weak position to protect Russell Wilson.

28. Ravens - Patrick Queen, LB, LSU.

The top seed in the AFC last year gets an upgrade to their defense. And they'll need to do that to try to slow down the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the postseason.

29. Titans - Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU.

The Titans, believe it or not, have one of the best rosters in the NFL. Like the Ravens, everyone in the AFC is chasing the Chiefs and an upgrade at cornerback should help some.

30. Packers - Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State.

The Packers will likely go WR here. If Higgins is not available, Aiyuk has risen up the draft boards in recent weeks and makes sense.

31. 49ers - Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama.

Again, I think San Francisco makes every effort to get out of this pick but if they make the selection, it'd be smart to go corner with Richard Sherman aging and other question marks at the position.

32. Chiefs - Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin.

This is a luxury pick. It's not necessarily a need, but Andy Reid loves speed and Taylor is really fast. And he was productive for Wisconsin with more than 6,000 career rushing yards.

Draft Notes: If you wondered why Alabama, LSU and Clemson were great last year just look at the first round. I have 5 Bama players, 4 LSU players and 3 Clemson players being taken. That's 12 of the 32 picks. ... I projected four QBs, six OL, six WRs and five CBs going in the first round. Those are the money positions in today's NFL.